贸易壁垒、市场相关多样化与城市出口韧性

doi:10.11821/dlyj020210162

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来,逆全球化趋势上升,许多国家对中国竖起贸易壁垒,在此背景下,如何提升城市的出口韧性已成为重要研究议题。现有文献普遍关注本地产业结构与区域韧性的关系,发现多样化产业结构有助于缓解贸易壁垒造成的外部冲击,但是较少探讨外部市场结构的作用。本文使用2001—2016年中国海关数据库贸易数据,引入市场关联概念,首次构建市场相关多样化指标,研究在贸易壁垒冲击下,中国城市出口市场相关多样化对城市出口韧性的影响。研究发现：① 市场相关多样化程度较高的城市,表现出更高的城市出口韧性,其可借助互补性的出口经验和风险分散的市场结构,减小贸易壁垒产生的直接和间接影响。② 外资比例较高、具有国家级经济开发区的城市,由于城市内部企业集聚程度高和信息交流频繁,更容易发挥市场相关多样化的作用。③ 城市相关多样化的市场结构很难抵抗发达国家（地区）贸易壁垒带来的冲击。本文认为地方政府应高度重视城市出口韧性,积极招商引资、申请经济开发区、保持对外联系,推动企业集聚、多举办展会以促进企业间贸易经验交流,尤其是要促进发展中国家的出口信息扩散,要积极引导本地企业利用本地已有贸易市场信息,拓展新市场。

关键词: 贸易壁垒, 出口市场, 相关多样化, 城市韧性, 国际贸易

Abstract:

Along with the rise of trade barriers against China in recent years, the resilience of Chinese cities in the face of de-globalization era is an important topic of regional development. Existing literature generally focuses on the relationship between local industrial structure and regional resilience, but few scholars have discussed the role of export marketing structure. Based on the trade data of China's customs database from 2001 to 2016, this article explores how the related diversification of China's urban export markets affects the impacts of trade barriers on export resilience. This paper finds that: First, cities with a high degree of market-related diversification will decrease the risks at the receiving trade barriers from destination country. Second, the role of export market related variety is more obvious in cities with high FDI and economic zone. Third, trade barriers from developed countries will weaken the role of export market related variety. Based on empirical conclusions, this article believes that local governments should pay more attention to enhancing urban resilience and guide local firms to expand new markets through promoting exporters' agglomeration and attracting investment.

Key words: trade barrier, export market, market related variety, urban resilience, international trade

王文宇, 任卓然, 李伟, 贺灿飞. 贸易壁垒、市场相关多样化与城市出口韧性[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(12): 3287-3301.

WANG Wenyu, REN Zhuoran, LI Wei, HE Canfei. Trade barriers, market related variety and export resilience of cities[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(12): 3287-3301.

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变量	解释	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
lnaddvlr_c_,_j_,_t	城市c到目的地j年均出口额增长率加2后的对数	602758	0.79	0.61	0.00	14.08
NTMs_j_,_t	国家（地区）j竖起贸易壁垒事件的对数	602758	1.68	1.90	0.00	5.96
NTMs2_j_,_t	同一市场网络组团中平均贸易壁垒事件数量	602758	2.32	1.62	0.00	5.38
RV_c_,_t	市场相关多样化	602758	0.04	0.03	0.00	0.34
lnGDP_c_,_t	城市c的GDP对数	601178	6.62	1.14	2.91	10.13
lnGDP_j_,_t	国家（地区）j的GDP对数	588335	24.56	2.21	17.22	30.46
lnDist_c_,_j	中国与j国（地区）地理距离的对数	602758	8.99	0.55	6.70	9.87
lnValue_c_,_j_,_t	城市c向国家（地区）j出口额的对数	602758	8.71	6.87	0.00	25.74
Frgn_c_,_t	城市c外资企业出口额比例	602758	0.32	0.23	0.00	0.94
Zone_c_,_t	城市c是否具有国家级开发区	602758	0.33	0.47	0.00	1.00
Developed_j_,_t	目的地j是否是发达国家（地区）	602758	0.18	0.39	0.00	1.00

	NTMs_j_,_t	NTMs2_j_,_t	RV_c_,_t	lnGDP_c_,_t	lnGDP_j_,_t	lnDist_c_,_j	lnValue_c_,_j_,_t
NTMs_j_,_t	1
NTMs2_j_,_t	0.7636	1
RV_c_,_t	0.0734	0.0565	1
lnGDP_c_,_t	-0.0424	-0.0149	-0.4873	1
lnGDP_j_,_t	0.5981	0.5681	0.1274	-0.0847	1
lnDist_c_,_j	-0.0481	-0.1462	-0.0442	0.0312	-0.2068	1
lnValue_c_,_j_,_t	0.2873	0.3081	-0.3345	0.4602	0.4663	-0.1371	1

	模型（1）	模型（2）	模型（3）	模型（4）	模型（5）	模型（6）
	贸易壁垒直接效应			贸易壁垒间接效应
RV_c_,_j_,_t	0.604^***	0.592^***	0.475^***	0.589^***	0.478^***	0.457^***
	(0.033)	(0.035)	(0.036)	(0.035)	(0.036)	(0.070)
NTMs_j_,_t	-0.003^***	-0.003^***	-0.003^***
	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)
NTMs_RV			0.253^***
			(0.015)
NTMs2_j_,_t				-0.004^***	-0.006^***	-0.004^**
				(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)
NTMs2_RV					0.326^***	0.083^**
					(0.017)	(0.033)
lnGDP_c_,_t	-0.082^***	-0.076^***	-0.076^***	-0.076^***	-0.077^***	-0.055^***
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)
lnGDP_j_,_t	-0.036^***	0.009	0.001	0.010	0.005	-0.015^*
	(0.001)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.008)
lnDist_c_,_j	0.018^***	-5.984^***	-4.890^***	-6.218^***	-5.642^***	-0.036
	(0.001)	(1.012)	(1.014)	(1.020)	(1.020)	(3114.496)
lnValue_c_,_j_,_t	0.037^***	0.043^***	0.043^***	0.043^***	0.043^***	0.040^***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
_cons	1.723^***	50.692^***	41.772^***	52.630^***	47.954^***	1.560
	(0.020)	(8.321)	(8.335)	(8.385)	(8.386)	(25969.199)
时间效应	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
省份效应	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
国家（地区）效应	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	586782	586782	586782	586782	586782	273921
F	10542.102	328.414	328.430	328.415	328.777	161.204
R²	0.097	0.114	0.115	0.114	0.115	0.120
P	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

	模型（1）	模型（2）	模型（3）	模型（4）	模型（5）	模型（6）
变量	贸易壁垒直接效应			贸易壁垒间接效应
	外资比重	是否有国家级经济开发区	发达国家 (或地区)	外资比重	是否有国家级经济开发区	发达国家 (或地区)
Var_NTMs_RV	0.340^***	0.378^***	-0.157^***	0.459^***	0.522^***	-0.020
	(0.063)	(0.058)	(0.051)	(0.073)	(0.068)	(0.086)
Var_NTMs	-0.016^***	-0.005^***	0.004^**	-0.023^***	-0.008^***	0.003
	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)
Var_RV	0.145	0.482^***	0.485^***	0.173	0.516^***	0.299^**
	(0.131)	(0.117)	(0.125)	(0.129)	(0.117)	(0.147)
NTMs_RV	0.261^***	0.193^***	0.251^***
	(0.018)	(0.016)	(0.020)
NTMs2_RV				0.335^***	0.242^***	0.295^***
				(0.021)	(0.018)	(0.020)
NTMs_j_,_t	-0.002^**	-0.000^*	-0.004^***
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
NTMs2_j_,_t				-0.006^***	-0.002^*	-0.007^***
				(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
RV_c_,_j_,_t	0.496^***	0.422^***	0.441^***	0.509^***	0.428^***	0.415^***
	(0.042)	(0.037)	(0.040)	(0.042)	(0.036)	(0.040)
Var	-0.042^***	-0.035^***	4.442^***	-0.041^***	-0.035^***	5.152^***
	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.977)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.985)
_cons	41.767^***	41.556^***	40.849^***	48.139^***	47.865^***	46.813^***
	(8.334)	(8.332)	(8.339)	(8.385)	(8.383)	(8.403)
控制变量	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
时间效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
省份效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
国家（地区）效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
N	586782	586782	586782	586782	586782	586782
F	323.961	325.097	324.318	324.569	325.724	324.641
R²	0.115	0.115	0.115	0.115	0.115	0.115
P	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000