中国高铁站的溢出效应及其空间分异——基于夜间灯光数据的实证分析

doi:10.11821/dlyj020210183

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

高铁作为中国交通运输史上一次划时代的变革,对沿线地区的经济发展和区域空间格局产生了重大影响。准确度量高铁站溢出效应及其空间分异规律,对于布设高铁站点、规划高铁新城具有重要意义。本研究解译了2017年前开通的527个高铁站点（对应180个城市）周围地区2004—2017连续14年的夜间灯光数据,采用双重差分法测度了高铁站溢出效应,并解析其空间分异规律。研究发现：第一,在全国层面,中国高铁的投运使站点周围区域经济活动强度提升约4.7%,其中东部地区高铁站溢出效应更为显著。第二,同城高铁站及机场的存在会削弱高铁站的溢出效应,其中机场和高铁站的竞争关系在发达城市更为显著。第三,城市规模与高铁站溢出效应呈非线性关系,特大城市的高铁站溢出效应最为显著;城市第三产业的发展能够提升高铁站溢出效应。此外,与北京、上海、广州（北上广）三大都市的距离是影响高铁站溢出效应的重要因素,随着距离的增加高铁站溢出效应变得不显著甚至为负。上述结论可为高铁站选址、高铁新城规划建设提供重要参考。

关键词: 高速铁路（高铁）, 溢出效应, 双重差分法, 夜间灯光, 异质性, 中国

Abstract:

As an epoch-making reform in the history of China's transportation, high-speed railway (HSR) has had a significant impact on the economic development and regional spatial pattern of the cities along the line. Accurate measurement of the spatial spillover effect of HSR stations, as well as its spatial heterogeneities and influencing factors, is of great significance for the layout of HSR stations, the construction of new HSR cities and the coordinated development of regions. This study interprets the night-time light intensity of 527 HSR stations in 180 cities from 2004 to 2017, and estimates the spillover effect of each HSR station by using the difference-in-differences approach. It is found that the opening of China's HSR stations has increased the intensity of regional economic activity by about 4.7%. This spatial spillover effect is affected by many factors and has great spatial heterogeneity. (1) The increasing number of HSR stations in the same city will weaken the spillover effect of the stations. And there is a significant competitive relationship between airports and HSR stations, which will weaken the agglomeration effect of HSR on economic activities. (2) Compared with the central, western, and northeast regions, the spillover effect of HSR stations in the eastern region is more significant, indicating that the eastern cities get more dividends in the construction of HSR. (3) The spillover effect of high-speed rail stations will be enhanced by the growth of urban scale, but there is no linear relationship between them, and the spillover effect of high-speed rail stations in mega-cities is the most significant. In addition, the distance to Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou is also an important factor affecting the effect. With the increase of distance, the spillover effect of high-speed rail stations becomes insignificant or even negative. The above conclusions show that the construction of new-HSR towns should take into account many factors such as local industrial economy, city size and location, number of airports or HSR stations in the same city.

Key words: high-speed railway (HSR), spillover effect, difference-in-differences (DID), night-time light, heterogeneity, China

牛方曲, 辛钟龄. 中国高铁站的溢出效应及其空间分异——基于夜间灯光数据的实证分析[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(10): 2796-2807.

NIU Fangqu, XIN Zhongling. Spillover effect of China's high-speed railway stations and its spatial differentiation: An empirical study based on night-time light datasets[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(10): 2796-2807.

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传感器	运营时段
F10	1992—1994年
F12	1994—1999年
F14	1997—2002年
F15	2000—2007年
F16	2004—2009年
F18	2010—2013年
VIIRS	2012—2017年

传感器	年份	a	b	c	R²
F16	2004	-0.0016	1.1666	1.0701	0.8775
	2005	-0.0026	1.442	0.1668	0.9016
	2006	-0.0055	1.4985	0.0195	0.9083
	2007	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	1.0000
	2008	0.0071	0.6311	1.3309	0.9
	2009	0.0079	0.4576	1.9299	0.8909
F18	2010	0.0085	0.4456	2.0004	0.8229
	2011	0.0084	0.481	2.4218	0.8412
	2012	0.0086	0.5017	2.7798	0.8816
	2013	0.0084	0.4833	2.5755	0.8266

变量	变量类型	变量描述	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
变量	变量类型	变量描述	样本量	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
ADN	站点周围经济活动强度	夜间灯光指数	14560	55.74	29.13	1.25	264.50
HSR	虚拟变量	是否开通高铁	14560	0.22	0.42	0	1
GDP	城市社会经济变量	地区生产总值(亿元)	7127	3010	3930	39.36	30000
Cap	城市社会经济变量	固定资产投资(亿元)	7258	877.14	1352.49	6.66	9920.37
Pop	城市社会经济变量	人口(万人)	7253	555.78	435.59	16.76	3392
Empl	城市社会经济变量	第二、第三产业从业人数(万人)	7084	455.66	5663.44	4.03	123009.30
Ind_Stru	城市社会经济变量	产业结构(第二、第三产业增加值的比值)	7236	1.29	0.52	0.23	6.73
Sta_Num	站点区位变量	城市高铁站点数量	180	4.62	3.51	1	18
Air	站点区位变量	城市有无机场	180	0.44	0.50	0	1
Dis_Meg	站点区位变量	与大都市距离(km)	177	1154	2121	34.83	10000
Train_num	站点等级变量	营运列车数量	520	46.04	63.60	1	503

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
因变量：lnADN	全部	全部	全部	全部	新建站点	升级站点
HSR	0.4011^***	0.0675^**	0.0669^**	0.0474^*	0.0476^*	0.0437
	(0.014)	(2.543)	(2.490)	(1.947)	(1.764)	(0.781)
Sta_Num				-0.0102^*	-0.0136^**	0.000580
				(-1.810)	(-2.208)	(0.0404)
Air				-0.118^***	-0.0694	-0.261^***
				(-2.863)	(-1.589)	(-2.672)
lnDis_Meg				-0.000608	0.00993	-0.0551
				(-0.0333)	(0.510)	(-1.092)
lnTrain_num				0.00430	-0.00131	0.00821
				(0.327)	(-0.0883)	(0.285)
lnGDP			0.0329	0.00709	0.0120	-0.0539
			(0.460)	(0.186)	(0.291)	(-0.504)
lnCap			0.0107	0.0106	0.00219	0.0443
			(0.532)	(0.595)	(0.111)	(1.045)
lnPop			0.0113	-0.0459	-0.0257	-0.110
			(0.0889)	(-1.265)	(-0.675)	(-1.122)
Ind_Stru			-0.0396	-0.0455^*	-0.0422	-0.0355
			(-1.483)	(-1.919)	(-1.472)	(-0.834)
lnEmpl			0.0135	0.0361^**	0.0344^**	0.0493
			(0.357)	(2.146)	(2.022)	(0.697)
Constant	3.591^***	3.558^***	2.927^**	3.708^***	3.493^***	5.202^***
	(0.010)	(0.0157)	(2.353)	(7.300)	(6.440)	(3.464)
个体固定效应	/	YES	YES	NO	NO	NO
时间固定效应	NO	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
样本量	7,280	14,560	14,084	13,440	10,896	2,544
R²	0.100	0.303	0.305	0.306	0.300	0.329

因变量：lnADN	地理区位
因变量：lnADN	东部	中部	西部	东北部
HSR	0.0877^**	0.0365	-0.0153	0.0447
	(2.449)	(0.810)	(-0.290)	(0.407)
区位和社会经济变量	是	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是
个体固定效应	否	否	否	否
样本量	5,788	4,142	2,662	848
R²	0.286	0.329	0.325	0.348