经济全球化下中国经济升级对社会升级的影响

doi:10.11821/dlyj020210292

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

社会升级与经济升级的关系是近年来国际经济地理学关注的热点问题,也是尚未有决议的前沿问题。本文从就业、社会保障、基本权利和社会对话4个维度建立社会升级测度指标体系,采用经济计量模型揭示了社会升级各维度的影响因素及经济升级、经济全球化、政府治理与社会升级的关系。研究发现：① 社会升级的不同维度受经济升级、经济全球化和政府治理的不同影响。就业维度主要受政府管制的正向影响,社会保障主要受社会劳动生产率提高的正向影响,基本权利维度主要受经济质量效益、创新投入和进口贸易的正向影响,社会对话维度受经济质量效益、创新投入、创新效率和外资的正向影响。② 经济升级对社会升级具有促进作用,政府治理对这个促进关系起到了中介作用,同时该中介作用进一步受到经济全球化的正向调节影响。这表明政府治理对促进经济升级转化为社会升级起到重要的中介作用,且这一作用在经济全球化下可以得到增强。本文有助于加深认识经济升级促进社会升级的机制,为探讨中国经济和社会“双升级”发展提供理论基础。

关键词: 社会升级, 经济升级, 政府治理, 经济全球化, 中国

Abstract:

The nexus between social upgrading and economic upgrading has received much attention within economic geography, yet remains under-researched. This paper establishes a comprehensive quantitative index to measure social upgrading from four dimensions, namely, employment, social security, basic rights and social dialogue. Based on econometric models, this study reveals the driving factors of each dimension and the relationship between economic upgrading, economic globalization, governance and social upgrading. The results show that: (1) Different dimensions of social upgrading are affected unevenly by economic upgrading, economic globalization and governance. Employment is mainly positively affected by government regulation. Social security is mainly positively affected by the improvement of social labor productivity. Basic rights are mainly positively affected by the economic quality, innovation input, and import trade. Social dialogue is positively affected by the economic quality and benefit, innovation input, innovation efficiency and foreign capital. (2) While economic upgrading promotes social upgrading, governance plays a mediation role in this relationship. Economic globalization plays a negative moderating role regarding economic upgrading and social upgrading, but a positive moderating role within the governance’s mediation. These relationships show that governance plays a critical character in promoting the transformation from economic upgrading to social upgrading and the effect can be enhanced under economic globalization. This study contributes to exploring the mechanisms of how economic upgrading promotes social upgrading, which provides a theoretical basis for the co-development of China's economy and society.

Key words: social upgrading, economic upgrading, governance, economic globalization, China

周进, 黄耿志. 经济全球化下中国经济升级对社会升级的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(12): 3364-3381.

ZHOU Jin, HUANG Gengzhi. The effect of economic upgrading on social upgrading in China under economic globalization[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(12): 3364-3381.

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一级	二级指标	三级指标	正/负向	权重
就业(A)	就业率(A₁)	就业人数年均增长率(%)(A₁₁)	+	0.0174
		城镇就业人数占总就业人数的比(%)(A₁₂)	+	0.0167
		城镇职工占总就业人数的比(%)(A₁₃)	+	0.0165
	就业机会(A₂)	本期单位登记招聘人数(人)(A₂₁)	+	0.0476
	失业率(A₃)	失业率(%)(A₃₁)	-	0.0521
	有酬工作(A₄)	城镇单位在岗职工平均工资(元)(A₄₁)	+	0.0245
	有酬工作(A₄)	劳动报酬支出占GDP的比(%)(A₄₂)	+	0.0258
	劳动环境(A₅)	认定工伤人数占总就业人数的比(人/十万人)(A₅₁)	-	0.0521
社会保障(B)	社会保障(B₁)	医保覆盖率(%)(B₁₁)	+	0.2409
基本权利(C)	受教育(C₁)	受大专以上教育就业人数占比(%)(C₁₁)	+	0.0834
	无性别歧视(C₂)	女性就业人数占比(%)(C₂₁)	+	0.0433
		就业人员中受大专以上教育男女占比差异(C₂₂)	-	0.0436
	参与工会(C₃)	工会会员数占就业人数比例(%)(C₃₁)	+	0.0422
		工会密度(个/万人)(C₃₂)	+	0.0423
社会对话(D)	谈判协商(D₁)	集体争议案件数(件)(D₁₁)	-	0.0217
		劳动争议案件密度(件/万人)(D₁₂)	-	0.0218
		劳动争议案件调解成功率(%)(D₁₃)	+	0.0217
	劳动仲裁(D₂)	劳动争议仲裁胜诉率(%)(D₂₁)	+	0.0639
	工会作用(D₃)	建立劳动争议委员会的基层工会数占比(%)(D₃₁)	+	0.0315
		工会参与调解争议案件成功率(%)(D₃₂)	+	0.0317
	经济民主(D₄)	已实施的合理化建议数(件)(D₄₁)	+	0.0298
		职工代表大会密度(个/万人)(D₄₂)	+	0.0293

	变量描述	衡量指标	权重
经济升级	经济增长	人均GDP增长(gdp_per)	0.250
	经济结构	Lilien系数(lilien)	0.132
		规模以上工业企业利润/主营业务收入(pro_main)	0.137
	质量效益	社会劳动生产率(total_p)	0.257
	创新	R&D经费占GDP之比(rd_gdp)	0.065
		发明专利申请授权量与 R&D经费之比(件/万元)(pat_rd)	0.066
		人均技术市场成交额(元/万人)(tm_per)	0.048
		规模以上工业企业新产品销售收入/主营业务收入(new_inc)	0.066
全球化	贸易开放度	进口与GDP之比(imp_gdp)	0.337
		出口与GDP之比(exp_gdp)	0.325
	投资开放度	IFDI与GDP之比(ifdi_gdp)	0.334
政府治理	产权保护制度质量	地区财政收入中罚没款收入占GDP之比(fp_gdp)	0.505
	政府管制	财政收入与GDP之比(gr_gdp)	0.495
控制变量	基础设施	铁路营业里程数(railway)
		邮电业务总量(pt)
	固定资产投资	全社会固定资产投资(fa_gdp)

	就业		社会保障		基本权利		社会对话
	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6	模型7	模型8
	OLS	FE	OLS	FE	OLS	FE	OLS	FE
gdp_per	-4.64E-09	-7.31E-09	-1.41E-08	1.96E-08	-1.75-08	-1.57E-08	7.29E-09	4.49E-10
lilien	0.0010	0.0146	-0.0570^**	-0.0510^*	-0.0094	-0.0138^**	-0.0111	-0.0146
pro_main	-0.0241	-0.0592^***	0.0036	0.0107	0.0295	0.0279	-0.0943^***	-0.0940^***
total_p	0.0002	-0.0006	0.0096^***	0.0095^***	0.0022^***	0.0021^***	0.0029^***	0.0031^***
rd_gdp	0.0010	-0.1672	-0.0657	0.2095	0.1524^*	0.2034^*	0.2920^***	0.3573^***
pat_rd	0.0064	-0.0032	-0.0062	0.0039	0.0042	0.0064	0.0220^**	0.0155^*
tm_per	1.28E-06^***	8.07E-07	-4.73E-06^***	-3.81E-06^*	-2.04E-08	3.99E-08	-1.43E-06^***	-1.73E-06^***
new_main	-0.0704^***	-0.0514^***	0.0897^**	0.0871	0.0061	0.0186	-0.0520^***	-0.0572^**
ifdi_gdp	0.0003	-0.0010	-0.0023	3.37E-05	0.0022	0.0047	0.0042^***	0.0051^***
imp_gdp	0.0234^***	-0.0150^***	-0.0072	0.0266	0.0133^***	0.0295^**	-0.0269^***	-0.0241^*
exp_gdp	-0.0217^**	-0.0269^***	-0.0465^**	-0.0025	-0.0149^**	-0.0193^*	0.0114	-0.0065
gr_gdp	0.0354	0.1433^**	0.2914^**	0.2341	-0.0049	0.0033	-0.0164	0.0172
fp_gdp	-1.1096	-1.2877^*	-0.5901	-0.8104	-0.7797^*	-0.6446	-2.7500^***	-3.8172^***
railway	-0.0031	0.0372^**	-0.0008	0.0606	-0.0045	-0.0007	0.0003	0.0055
pt	7.56E-06^***	3.95E-06^**	1.61E-05^***	1.27E-05^**	-1.12E-07	1.83E-07	-3.08E-06^***	7.27E-06^***
fa_gdp	0.0011	-0.0012	0.0062^***	-0.0130	0.0088^***	0.0024^**	-0.0006	0.0038
Constant	0.1108^***	0.1068^***	-0.0208^***	-0.0371^***	0.0758^***	0.0735^***	0.0821^***	0.0818^***
R²	0.338		0.750		0.731		0.490
F值		29.7^***		104.41^***		687.03^***		25.89^***

	1996—2007年				2008—2017年
	就业	社会保障	基本权利	社会对话	就业	社会保障	基本权利	社会对话
	FE	FE	FE	FE	FE	FE	OLS	FE
gdp_per	-1.40E-09	1.37E-08	-9.60E-09	-4.07E-09	1.37E-08	1.14E-07	-9.54E-09	-1.86E-08
lilien	0.0168	-0.0034	-0.0127	-0.0082	0.0211	-0.1263	-0.0037	-0.0037
pro_main	-0.0196	0.0524^***	0.0438	-0.0354^*	-0.0196	0.1984^*	-0.0156	-0.0106
total_p	-0.0047^***	0.0096^***	0.0003	-0.0024^*	0.0017^***	0.0137^***	0.0017^**	0.0044^***
rd_gdp	-0.8296^**	0.6806^***	0.2222	-0.7730^**	0.0999	0.8320	0.1993^*	0.2322^*
pat_rd	-0.0329	0.0912^**	-0.0716	-0.0921	0.0018	0.0308	0.0046	0.0059
tm_per	-5.90E-07	8.47E-06^***	2.17E-06	-1.71E-06	4.66E-07	-6.66E-06^**	5.87E-07	-3.20E-07
new_main	-0.0456^**	0.0335	0.0248^*	-0.0643^***	0.0049	0.0823	0.0064	-0.0154
ifdi_gdp	-0.0003	0.0006^**	0.0058^*	0.0034^**	-0.0004	0.0041	-0.0008	0.0028^***
imp_gdp	0.0089	0.0157	0.0312	0.0158	0.0095	0.0213	0.0073	0.0044
exp_gdp	0.0128	-0.0344^*	-0.0339	0.0435^**	-0.0081	0.1911^**	0.0043	0.0051
gr_gdp	0.1688^**	-0.0122	0.0318	0.0404	0.1403^***	-0.1315	0.0047	0.0507
fp_gdp	-0.7012	0.9845^**	-1.0016	-4.1613^***	-0.2221	6.4268	-1.1251	1.2131
railway	-0.0269^*	0.0208^*	-0.0112	-0.0192	0.0045	0.1209^*	-0.0009	0.0161
pt	1.12E-05^***	1.29E-06	5.23E-06^*	-4.02E-06	1.79E-06	1.52E-05	-2.05E-06^**	-9.30E-06^***
fa_gdp	-0.0028	0.0043^**	0.0018	0.0011	0.0001	0.0035	0.0051^**	0.0075^**
Constant	0.1203^***	-0.0257^***	0.0784^***	0.0970^***	0.0795^***	-0.1275^***	0.0834^***	0.0366^***
F值	63.38^***	3343.59^***	23.33^***	452.81^***	160.96^***	13.21^***		35.88^***
R²							0.8

变量	社会升级			政府治理			社会升级
变量	β	SE	t	β	SE	t	β	SE	t
Constant	0.329	0.002	131.69^***	-0.009	0.004	-2.445^**	0.331	0.002	149.187^***
经济升级	0.594	0.036	16.304^***	0.594	0.054	11.001^***	0.395	0.035	11.317^***
经济全球化	0.027	0.022	1.226	0.159	0.032	4.972^***	-0.034	0.02	-1.698
经济升级*经济全球化	0.235	0.221	1.061	2.158	0.328	6.581^***	-0.818	0.287	-2.852^***
政府治理							0.327	0.023	14.312^***
经济全球化*政府治理							0.295	0.17	1.73
R²	0.382			0.412			0.526
F检验	139.803^***			158.327^***			150.059^***
	经济升级在经济全球化不同水平上的中介效应值
	经济全球化	Effect	BootSE	BootLLCI			BootULCI
政府治理的中介作用	-0.098	0.114	0.023	0.068			0.159
	0	0.194	0.020	0.154			0.235
	0.128	0.317	0.027	0.264			0.371