1961-2010 年中国降水强度变化趋势及其对降水量影响分析

doi:10.11821/dlyj201407013

地理研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (7): 1335-1347.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201407013

1961-2010 年中国降水强度变化趋势及其对降水量影响分析

徐新创^1,2, 张学珍¹, 戴尔阜¹, 宋伟¹

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
2. 湖北科技学院资源环境科学与工程学院, 咸宁 437005

收稿日期:2013-09-23 修回日期:2014-03-25 出版日期:2014-07-10 发布日期:2014-07-10
通讯作者: 戴尔阜（1972-），甘肃省平凉人，博士，研究员，主要从事自然地理综合研究、气候变化及其区域响应、土地利用变化模拟等研究。E-mail：daief@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:徐新创（1976-），男，湖北阳新人，博士，副教授，主要从事全球变化与灾害风险研究。E-mail：xxch8009@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划（973 计划）项目（2012CB955403）；湖北省科技支撑计划软科学研究专项（2013BDF049）；中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目（2031202400003）

Research of trend variability of precipitation intensity and their contribution to precipitation in China from 1961 to 2010

XU Xingchuang^1,2, ZHANG Xuezhen¹, DAI Erfu¹, SONG Wei¹

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. School of Resources Environment Science and Technology, Hubei University of Science and Technology, Xianning 437100, Hubei, China

Received:2013-09-23 Revised:2014-03-25 Online:2014-07-10 Published:2014-07-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 探讨区域降水强度的时空变化趋势对于揭示区域气候变化规律、有效应对气候变化水资源影响等具有重要意义。利用756 个气象观测站1961-2010 年50 年逐日降水资料，分析了中国不同等级降水（小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨及年均降水）强度的年际、年代际的变化趋势，以及不同等级降水变化在降水量增量中的贡献。结果表明：在年际变化中，降水强度总体呈现上升趋势，显著上升区域主要分布在中国东部秦岭—淮河线以南的地区；在不同等级降水强度中小雨强度变化趋势最为显著，中雨以上级别降水强度则相对稳定。在年代际变化中，各区域年代际降水强度变化差异明显，20 世纪60 年代和70 年代下降显著，80 年代、90 年代、21 世纪的前10 年则上升明显。此外，降水强度对降水量增量贡献由东至西呈“大—小—大—小”的相间带状分布；在中国西部，小雨、中雨、大雨强度对降水量增量起主导作用，而在中国东部暴雨降水强度在降水量贡献中起主导作用，且在东北区东南、黄淮海西北以及西南中部作用更加明显。

关键词: 中国, 降水强度, 变化趋势, 降水量

Abstract: Precipitation intensity is one of important meteorological factors determining occurrence of extreme hydro events and variation of available water resources. China is a country with frequent floods/droughts and unbalanced demand/supply of water resources. To reveal the climate change rhythms and deal with water resources issues, it is valuable to research the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation intensity. Using the daily precipitation measurements during 1961-2010 from 756 stations across China, we researched the inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation intensity for the light, moderate, heavy and storm rainfall, respectively, and quantified their impacts on total precipitation. The overall trend of variations of precipitation intensity is positive. Such a positive trend was mainly observed in the region south of Qinling Mountains and the Huaihe River. Among the four grades of rainfall, the light rainfall intensity has the strongest positive trend; whereas, the moderate, heavy and storm rainfalls have no significant trends. The precipitation intensity also had obvious inter-decadal variations. At decadal scale, the precipitation intensity was weak in the 1960s and 1970s while it was strong since the 1980s. The contribution of precipitation intensity variations to total precipitation spatially occurred in the order of‘large-small-large-small'from east to west. The storm rainfall plays a dominant role in the variations of total precipitation in the eastern China, particularly in the southeast of Northeast China, west of North China and middle of Southwest China. The light, moderate and heavy rainfalls play a dominant role in the variations of total precipitation in the western China.

Key words: China, precipitation intensity, trend variability, precipitation

徐新创, 张学珍, 戴尔阜, 宋伟. 1961-2010 年中国降水强度变化趋势及其对降水量影响分析[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(7): 1335-1347.

XU Xingchuang, ZHANG Xuezhen, DAI Erfu, SONG Wei. Research of trend variability of precipitation intensity and their contribution to precipitation in China from 1961 to 2010[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2014, 33(7): 1335-1347.

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1961-2010 年中国降水强度变化趋势及其对降水量影响分析

Research of trend variability of precipitation intensity and their contribution to precipitation in China from 1961 to 2010

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