地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2007, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 187-196.doi: 10.11821/yj2007010023

• 城市与乡村 • 上一篇    下一篇

区域城市化与生态环境耦合发展模拟 及调控策略 ——以江苏省为例

刘耀彬1, 陈 斐1, 李仁东2   

  1. 1. 南昌大学中国中部经济发展研究中心, 南昌 330047;
    2. 中国科学院测量与地球物理研究所,武汉 430077
  • 收稿日期:2005-10-14 修回日期:2006-07-23 出版日期:2007-01-25 发布日期:2007-01-25
  • 作者简介:刘耀彬(1970-),男,湖北麻城人,博士,副教授。主要从事城市与区域经济方面的研究工作。 E-mail :liuyaobin2003@163.com Tel:0791-3163385
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(40401021);中国博士后基金项目(20060400249)

Simulation of regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling and regulation policies: taking Jiangsu Province as a case

LIU Yao-bin1, CHEN Fei1, LI Ren-dong2   

  1. 1. Center for Research on Economic Development in the Central Part of China, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330047, China;
    2. Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics Research, CAS, Wuhan 430077, China
  • Received:2005-10-14 Revised:2006-07-23 Online:2007-01-25 Published:2007-01-25
  • Supported by:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(40401021);中国博士后基金项目(20060400249)

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摘要： 根据城市化与生态环境耦合含义及框架,利用SD的原理和方法,以江苏省为例,建立了区域城市化与生态环境耦合的SD模型,并选取五种典型发展模式进行策略情景模拟。分析表明:①区域城市化与生态环境交互耦合具有复杂性、非线性和时变性的特点,SD模型分析此类问题具有明显的适用性。模型的历史数据拟合的误差小,反映它具有一定可靠性,能在一定程度上解释区域城市化与生态环境交互耦合的复杂行为,评估城市化对生态环境的潜在效应;②在不同调控策略的发展模式下,该省城市化与生态环境耦合的情景存在较大差异,五种模式都有其显著的比较优势,同时也存在明显的发展缺陷;③根据该省的发展特点和区域发展差异并结合城市化发展一般规律,分阶段和分地域推进人口城市化发展模式和社会城市化发展模式,可以实现该省人口、经济、城市化和生态环境协调发展的目的。

关键词: 城市化, 生态环境, SD, 模拟, 江苏

Abstract: According to the rule and framework of urbanization and eco-environment coupling, the system dynamic model of the coupling system between urbanization and eco-environment in Jiangsu province has been designed by means of SD method. Based on Jiangsu’s serial statistical data from 1990 to 2003, the five scenarios of the coupling models during 2000-2015 have been simulated. The results show that: Firstly, for there exist complex, nonlinear and changeable characteristics of the coupling system between regional urbanization and eco-environment, in terms of SD merits, it is applicable for the SD to deal with the complexity resulted from regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling. The accuracy assessment with historical data covering 1990 to 2003 indicates the SD model is reliable to a certain extent, which can reveal some complex actions of the coupling system and evaluate the potential effects that urbanization intimidated eco-environment. Secondly, there exist significantly differences among the five development models, which show both comparative advantages and drawbacks. Thirdly, according to the characteristics and regional disparities of Jiangsu development and the general rule of world urbanization, it is revealed that only when either population urbanization model or society urbanization model to be adopted correspondingly can the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eco-environment be realized.

Key words: urbanization, eco-environment, system dynamic model, simulation, Jiangsu