地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2008, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (1): 65-74.doi: 10.11821/yj2008010007

• 旅游与文化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于本底线的2008年北京奥运会客流量预测

孙根年, 马丽君   

  1. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安 710062
  • 收稿日期:2007-10-15 修回日期:2007-11-28 出版日期:2008-01-25 发布日期:2008-01-25
  • 作者简介:孙根年(1961-),陕西西安市人,教授、博士生导师。主要从事旅游管理的教学和研究。 E-mail:gnsun@snnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(40271052)和国家社会科学基金(03BJY0088)资助项目

Forecast on the tourist-generating market of Beijing Olympic Games in 2008 based on tourism background trend line

SUN Gen-nian, MA Li-jun   

  1. College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, Shaanxi,China
  • Received:2007-10-15 Revised:2007-11-28 Online:2008-01-25 Published:2008-01-25
  • Supported by:

    国家自然科学基金(40271052)和国家社会科学基金(03BJY0088)资助项目

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摘要：

依据多种调查资料和旅游本底趋势线理论,对2008年北京奥运会引致下的旅游客流量变化及客源结构进行细致的预测,主要结论如下:(1)奥运庆典引致下,未来3年北京市入境旅游进入一个超常增长期,客流量统计线将掀起一个"凸形峰",2007~2009年入境客流量分别达到433.6万、517.2万和465.3万人次,较起本底趋势线净增长8%、25%和10%;(2)国内旅游也将进入一个超常增长期,2007~2009年国内客流量分别达到14410万、17384万和16285万人次,较本底趋势线净增长4%、20%和8%。入境旅游的相对贡献率高于国内旅游;(3)奥运庆典引致下的北京市国际/国内客流量超常增长是一个具有特定周期的事件旅游,可划分为"奥前"、"奥中"和"奥后"三个阶段,本文依据客流量年内变化和奥运庆典生命周期,给出了2007~2009年3年各月客流量的预测值;(4)奥运盛典及其设施与活动像"磁场"吸引着国内外游客,结合近年来主要客源市场调查资料,给出了国际国内客源地客流量预测值。

关键词: 本底趋势线, 北京奥运会, 客流量预测, 年内分布, 客源结构

Abstract:

The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is the first and large-scale celebration events that China undertakes since entering the new century; it will bring about gigantic influence on the Beijing's inbound and domestic tourism. Based on the theory of background trend line and a variety of survey data, the variation of tourists both at home and abroad and their distribution caused by Beijing Olympic Games in 2008 are forecasted. The results are as follows: ①Affected by the Olympic Games, Beijing’s international tourism will go to a super-normal increase time in the coming three years. Compared with background trend line, the statistic line will form a summit. The number of Beijing’s inbound tourists in 2007, 2008 and 2009 will reach 4.34 million respectively, 5.17 million and 4.65 million respectively. The net increase rates will reach 8%,25% and 10% compared with the number based on the background trend line.②Beijing’s domestic tourism will go to a super-normal increase time in the coming three years. The number of Beijing’s domestic tourists in 2007, 2008 and 2009 will reach 144.1 million, 173.84 million, and 162.85 million respectively. The net increase rates will reach 4%, 20% and 8% compared with the number based on the back ground trend line.③Affected by the Olympic Games, the time series variation of Beijing’s inbound and domestic tourism has a special lifestyle, it can be divided into three states of "pre-Olympic", "in Olympic" and "post-after Olympic", and separately named the breeding and generating state, the climax state and the weakening and smoothing state. Based on the monthly variation of tourists flow, tourism climate comfort, and the lifestyle of the Olympic Games, the tourists flow of each month in 2007, 2008 and 2009 is forecasted.④The Olympic Games and its facilities attract tourists both at home and abroad just like a magnetic field. Its attraction to tourists is inversely proportional to special distance and is directly proportional to the preference to physical training tourism of residents of a country or a region. Based on the survey data of tourist market in recent years, the tourist numbers of main markets both at home and abroad are forecasted. This provides a scientific basis for managing Beijing's tourism and admitting tourists during the Olympic Games.

Key words: background trend line, Beijing Olympic Games, tourist-generating market forecast, intra-annual distribution, structure of the tourist source