气候变化研究中若干不确定性的认识问题

doi:10.11821/yj2010020002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化研究已取得重要进展,但很多研究结果存在不确定性。本文选择对气候变化研究有重要意义但已有的研究结果存在不确定性的几个方面进行综述,包括过去两千年气候变化的状况(中世纪暖期和小冰期是否存在、20世纪温暖程度是否为过去千年最大、20世纪增温趋势是否停止)、温室效应(对温室效应机理的不同认识、温室气体排放与气温变化的关系、水汽对温室效应及增温的贡献)、气候模式模拟(模拟与实测结果的比较、模式本身的缺陷)以及2℃阈值(来源及其物理意义、对2℃阈值的不同认识)等问题。气候系统变化的复杂性决定了人类对气候变化问题的认识产生分歧和争议在所难免,当前人类对气候变化的诸多研究结论并非是最终定论,很多问题有待进一步研究;进而对未来一段时期深入开展气候变化研究需要重点关注的5个领域及其主要科学问题进行了探讨。

关键词: 气候变化, 不确定性, 认识

Abstract:

There are a variety of uncertainties of understanding on climate change, although much important progress has been achieved so far. In this paper, some hot issues related with disagreements are explored on both sides, which could be significant to climate change research. These issues can be listed as follows: 1) the past climate change-whether the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age existed in the past 2000 years or not, whether the global mean temperature of the 20th century was the highest in the latest 1000 years or not, and whether the global warming trend in the last decade has disappeared or not; 2) greenhouse effects-different viewpoints on its mechanism, greenhouse effects on climate change, and effects of water vapor in the atmosphere on global warming. 3) simulation of climate system-differences of the global mean temperature by observed and simulated climate models as well as their shortcomings. 4) 2℃ threshold of the global warming-the physical significance of 2℃ threshold for the earth, and disputation on itself. Finally, it is proposed that five topics on climate change research need to be studied further in the near future.

Key words: climate change, uncertainty, understanding

葛全胜,王绍武,方修琦. 气候变化研究中若干不确定性的认识问题[J]. 地理研究, 2010, 29(2): 191-203.

GE Quan-sheng, WANG Shao-wu, FANG Xiu-qi. An uncertainty analysis of understanding on climate change[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2010, 29(2): 191-203.

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