快速人口老龄化是百年未有之大变局在人口发展大势上的体现,是中国当下和未来不可逆转的基本人口国情,决定了风险挑战的长期性和应对任务的艰巨性。21世纪以来,尤其是党的十九大以来,中国共产党关于积极应对人口老龄化的伟大构想在实践中日臻完善,夯实了决胜全面建成小康社会的人口支撑。当前,在建党百年的关键节点,树立综合性和集成化的体系意识,贯彻落实积极应对人口老龄化国家战略,是适应“十四五”时期深度老龄社会形态定局的重要基础,以及迈向全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的必要前提。具体而言,需要遵循“五位一体”总体布局,夯实经济财富储备,增强政治治理能力,培育文化价值风尚,厚植社会民生沃土,推进生态文明建设,在国家战略体系中积极应对老龄社会问题。

The general trend of population and development is characterised by rapid population ageing, which is one of the irreversible changes and the basic national conditions in current and future China, determining the long-term nature of the challenge and the arduousness of the task. Since the beginning of this century, especially since the 19th National Congress of CPC, CPC's great concept on actively dealing with population ageing has improved in practice and consolidated the population support system for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. On the centenary of the founding of CPC, the establishment of a comprehensive and integrated system awareness, and the implementation of the national strategy to actively deal with population ageing are important foundations for adapting to the deep ageing society during the 14th FiveYear Plan period, and necessary preconditions for opening the new journey to build a socialist modern country in a holistic way. Specifically, it is necessary to consolidate economic wealth reserves, enhance political governance capabilities, cultivate cultural values, ensure peoples livelihoods, and promote ecological civilization construction according to the Fivesphere Integrated Plan.

利用2000年和2010年分县人口普查数据,分析中国县域人口老龄化的空间格局及变化,采用结构方程模型拟合人口老龄化影响因子之间的路径关系,探讨中国县域人口老龄化的影响机制。结果表明:内蒙古包头至云南腾冲是中国县域人口老龄化较为清晰的空间分界线,其东南部老龄化高值县区连片集中,低值县区夹杂其间;西北全域老龄化率普遍较低,仅在北缘横亘一条中值县区连绵带。结构方程模型的拟合结果很好地解释了中国县域人口老龄化空间差异的影响机制。迁移率、预期寿命和生育率是人口老龄化进程的内生因素,其中,预期寿命对县域人口老龄化有正向效应,迁移率和生育率则对县域人口老龄化有负向效应。社会经济、家庭状况和自然环境等因素是人口老龄化进程的外生因素,对中国县域人口老龄化有显著的直接和间接效应。收入增加、社会发展、居住条件改善以及环境舒适性提高等推高县域人口老龄化水平,城镇化水平提高则降低县域人口老龄化水平。

Since the 1970s, great progress has been made in research on the spatio-temporal pattern of population ageing at multiple spatial scales by both domestic and foreign scholars. However, the analysis of the process mechanism of regional ageing is still insufficient. Based on the county-scale data in 2000 and 2010 censuses, the spatio-temporal pattern of population ageing is statistically analyzed. Moreover, the Structural Equation Model (or SEM) is developed to explore the path relationship between various variables. Consequently, the influencing mechanism of regional ageing process is thoroughly revealed. The main results are as follows. Firstly, the line from Baotou City of Inner Mongolia autonomous region to Tengchong County of Yunnan province (or BT Line) is a geographical demarcation of regional ageing disparities in China. Southeast of the BT Line witnesses contiguous areas of higher ageing counties which interspersed with lower ageing counties, whereas northwest of the BT Line is a continuous area of lower ageing counties with just one middle-level ageing belt located in the north margin. Secondly, the fitting results of SEM interpret the influencing mechanism of regional ageing disparities in China. Thirdly, life expectancy, fertility and migration are three endogenous factors of regional ageing process. Thereinto, life expectancy has significantly positive effect, while fertility and migration have significantly negative effects on regional ageing. Lastly, geographical environment has significant direct and indirect effects on regional ageing in China. In general, the income increase, social progress, and the improvement of living conditions and natural environmental quality would enhance regional ageing level, otherwise the improvement of urbanization level would decrease regional ageing level.

On 28 April 2011, China's state statistics bureau released its first report on the country's 2010 population census. The report states that the total population of mainland China reached 1.3397 billion in 2010, with an annual average population growth rate of 0.57% during the previous 10 years. The share of the total population aged 0 to 14 declined from 22.9% in 2000 to 16.6% in 2010, whereas the proportion aged 65 and above grew from 7.0% to 8.9% during the same period. This indicates that China's population is aging rapidly. The report also shows that China is urbanizing, with nearly half of the population--665.57 million people, or 49.7%--living in urban areas, an increase of 13 percentage points over the 2000 figure. Moreover, about 260 million Chinese people are living away from where they are formally registered, and the overwhelming majority of them (about 220 million) are rural migrants living and working in urban areas but without formal urban household registration status. China is at a demographic turning point: It is changing from an agricultural society into an urban one, from a young society to an old one, and from a society attached to the land to one that is very much on the move.

文章借助各省区人口老龄化的演变过程及其与本地区经济的发展相关程度变化,来判别中国是否出现"未富先老"、"城乡倒置"或"人口红利"消失阻滞经济发展以及区域差异化演变等问题。通过一系列的数据分析发现:(1)中国各省区的人口老龄化演变阶段差异很大,但基本没有出现"未富先老",人口老龄化并没有妨碍经济发展,这既与经济转型、开放经济等有关,也符合全球人口老龄化演化的一般规律;(2)勾画中国各省区人口老龄化演变特征,可将其划分成四类不同的人口老龄化类型,其演变历程的地域推移与地域集聚现象十分明显。就目前的演变过程来看,中国人口老龄化与地区经济发展有明显相关性,经济发展成为中国人口老龄化的重要推动因素之一。

文章借助各省区人口老龄化的演变过程及其与本地区经济的发展相关程度变化,来判别中国是否出现"未富先老"、"城乡倒置"或"人口红利"消失阻滞经济发展以及区域差异化演变等问题。通过一系列的数据分析发现:(1)中国各省区的人口老龄化演变阶段差异很大,但基本没有出现"未富先老",人口老龄化并没有妨碍经济发展,这既与经济转型、开放经济等有关,也符合全球人口老龄化演化的一般规律;(2)勾画中国各省区人口老龄化演变特征,可将其划分成四类不同的人口老龄化类型,其演变历程的地域推移与地域集聚现象十分明显。就目前的演变过程来看,中国人口老龄化与地区经济发展有明显相关性,经济发展成为中国人口老龄化的重要推动因素之一。

在老龄化快速推进、经济社会转型和城乡空间重构的特殊时期,中国人口老龄化现象日趋复杂,地理学与老年学等学科交叉的需求日益凸显。亟需从学科构建的角度出发,思考老龄化地理学的研究方向,填补老龄化研究的空白,丰富与拓展地理学研究领域。本文在回顾已有研究的基础上,梳理出国内老龄化地理学研究的5个主题,即：①人口老龄化的时空特征和驱动因素;②人口老龄化的空间效应;③老年人健康与环境的关系;④老年人的空间行为;⑤养老服务的空间组织与规划,并对相关研究进展进行评述。通过国内外的比较研究,对老龄化地理学的学科定位、研究体系和理论方法建构进行了分析和展望,以期为从地理学视角解读中国特定社会经济背景下的人口老龄化现象提供一个研究框架。

China is going through a very special era characterized by rapid population aging, abrupt social and economic transformations, and widespread restructuring of urban and rural spaces. With the factors and mechanisms underlying the aging process becoming increasingly complicated, integration of geographic research on aging with gerontology and other disciplines is indispensable, and it is time to examine the direction of geographical research on aging from the perspective of disciplinary development. Based on an intensive literature review, this article extracts five themes from existing geographic studies on aging in China, that is, the spatial and temporal characteristics of population aging, the social and spatial impacts of aging, interactions of human health and environments, the spatial behavior of elderly people, and spatial planning of senior services. Comments are made on existing studies along these lines respectively. Through a comparison of Chinese and western studies with regard to the socioeconomic backgrounds, policy needs, and research foci, key issues in geographical research on aging in China are raised, including academic framework and theoretical and methodological constructions. Future research emphases are discussed, with the aim to provide a general framework for understanding and studying China's aging process from the perspective of geography.

地区间“未富先老”现象,即经济欠发达地区人口老龄化程度相对于经济发达地区超前于经济发展水平。文章从此内涵出发,构造了地区间“未富先老”现象的测度指标,并量化描述了我国地区间“未富先老”现象; 在此基础上,文章重点考察了此现象在我国的严重程度、发展趋势以及形成原因。结果显示: 我国“各地区老龄化程度与经济发展水平具有一致性,自西向东呈阶梯上升”的人口老龄化空间分布格局已经发生本质改变; 上世纪90 年代以来,我国地区间“未富先老”现象的严重程度由“不严重”变为“严重”,并有向“极其严重”变化的趋势; 流动人口数量剧增、年龄选择性以及大量向发达地区集中是我国地区间“未富先老”现象日趋严重的原因。

The regional perspective of“getting old before getting rich”in China is framed by the comparison in population ageing between less developed and more developed areas. Basing on the connotation of this phenomenon,this paper constructs measurement indexes to describe the phenomenon quantitativelyand analyzes the severity,trends and causes of this phenomenon in China. The results show that,while trends in population aging in different regions across China are broadly consistent with regional levels of economic development,spatial patterns of ageing have been changing. The inter-regional trend of“getting old before getting rich”has become increasingly severe. The reasons why the phenomenon becomes increasingly serious are the dramatic growth in migrant population,which is highly age selective and concentrated in the developed regions.

基于2000和2010年全国人口普查分县数据,对中国流动人口空间格局的演变特征、形成机制及其城镇化效应进行了系统分析。研究发现,流动人口分布的空间格局具有较强的稳定性,长三角、珠三角和京津冀等沿海城市群仍然是其主要集中地,且沿海集中区有连绵化的趋势,但在城市群内部的空间分布模式差异显著。流动人口向内陆地区的省会等特大城市集中趋势明显,其分布重心出现了明显的北移。省内县际的流动人口规模已接近于省际流动,且有更高的意愿和更强的能力永久居留城镇,省内县际的永久性迁移将成为未来中国人口城镇化的主导模式。中国流动人口迁入地的选择受到政府和市场双重力量的影响,后者的影响力更强。远距离流入东部地区的人口在务工之外,对享受城市生活也开始有所考虑;而中西部地区政府力量在引导人口流动中仍起到重要作用。大规模的人口流动对流出地和流入地的城镇化水平提高均有显著贡献,同时在很大程度上重构了中国城镇体系的等级规模结构和空间布局模式。

China has witnessed unprecedented urbanization over the past decades. The rapid expansion of urban population has been dominated by the floating population from rural areas, of which the spatiotemporal patterns, driving forces, and multidimensional effects have been scrutinized and evaluated by voluminous empirical studies. However, the urban and economic development mode has been reshaped by the globalization and marketization processes and the socioeconomic space has been restructured as a consequence. How has the spatial pattern of floating population evolved against these backdrops? How has the evolution been driven by the interaction of state and market forces? What have been the contribution of population mobility to the urbanization of origin and destination regions and the evolution of China's urban system? The latest national censuses conducted in 2000 and 2010 offer the opportunity to systematically answer these questions. Analysis based on the county-level data comes to conclusions as follows. (1) The spatial pattern of floating population remained stable over the first decade of the 21st century. Three coastal mega-city regions, namely the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, were major concentration areas. As the emergence and rapid development of other coastal mega-city regions, the coastal concentration area of floating population tended to geographically united as a whole, whereas the spatial distribution within each region variegated significantly. (2) Floating population gradually moved into provincial capitals and other big cities in interior regions and its distribution center of gravity moved northward around 110 km during the study period. (3) Compared with extensively investigated inter-provincial migrants, intra-provincial migrants had higher intention and ability to permanently live in cities they worked in and thus might become the main force of China's urbanization in the coming decades. (4) The spatial pattern of floating population was shaped jointly by the state and market forces in transitional China. While the impacts of state forces have been surpassed by market forces in the country as a whole, they are still important in shaping the development space of central and western China. (5) The massive mobility of population contributed a large proportion to the increase of urbanization levels of both origin and destination regions and reshaped China's urban system in terms of its hierarchical organization and spatial structure.

随着中国城市经济的发展以及城镇化的快速推进,人口迁移的空间格局发生了重大变化。本文基于1985-2015年全国省际人口迁移矩阵数据,运用社会网络分析方法,探讨中国省际人口迁移网络的整体特征以及每个节点在网络中的地位作用。研究结论为：①省际人口迁移网络密度经历了1985-2000年的缓慢下降、2000-2015年持续上升的过程,与西北、西南和中部主要人口迁出地向东部经济发达地区的集中性迁移成为发展主流密切相关。②人口迁移网络的内向中心势明显大于外向中心势,说明人口迁入地相对集中,人口迁出地相对分散。③省际人口迁移网络可分为东北—华北人口联动区、中原—长三角人口联动区、中南—华南人口联动区、西南人口联动区、西北人口联动区5个子群。其中,中原—长三角人口联动区是群内和群间联系最紧密的区域;中南—华南人口联动区是全国人口累计迁移量最高的区域;东北—华北人口联动区内部联系较强,对外仅与西北人口联动区联系较强。④基于中心性分析以及核心—边缘结构划分,各省(市、区)对于人口迁移网络的贡献意义不同,广东、北京具有全局控制意义,江苏、陕西、四川、浙江基本处于核心节点序列,上海、天津、内蒙古、福建核心作用逐渐增强,河南、湖北、河北、新疆核心作用出现下降,全国人口迁移路径总体向北偏移。

With the rapid development of urban economy and the promotion of urbanization, great changes have taken place in the spatial pattern of population migration in China. Migration has played an important role in the economic, social, and cultural development of cities. Based on the provincial population migration matrix data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in 1985-2015, a social network analysis was conducted to investigate the overall characteristics of interprovincial population migration network and the role of each node. The results show that: (1) Network density of interprovincial population migration has experienced a slow decline in 1985-2000 and a continuous increase in 2000-2015. The concentrated migration of population from the northwest, southwest, and central regions to the eastern developed areas has become the mainstream of development. (2) The inward center potential of population migration network rapidly increased in 1985-2005 and gradually declined in 2005-2015. It indicates that the number of important population moving areas were increasing gradually (such as Tianjin and Fujian), towards a "multi-polarization" development. The outward center potential was always at a low level and exhibited a trend of fluctuation. The inward center potential was clearly larger than the outward center potential. It indicates that the population migration area is relatively concentrated, and the population emigration area is relatively dispersed. (3) The interprovincial population migration network can be divided into 5 groups: Northeast-North China population linkage area, Central Plains-Yangtze River Delta population linkage area, Middle South-Pearl River Delta population linkage area, southwest population linkage area, and northwest population linkage area. Among them, the Central Plains-Yangtze River Delta population linkage area was the most closely linked between and within group; Middle South-Pearl River Delta population linkage area had the highest total population migration. The Northeast-North China population linkage area had a stronger internal connection and only strongly linked with the northwest region externally. (4) According to the population migration analysis, the 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities can be divided into three major categories: net population migration areas including eight provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities (Guangdong, Zhejiang, Beijing, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Tianjin, Fujian, and Xinjiang); population balanced areas including six provinces and autonomous regions (Hainan, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Liaoning), and population net emigration areas including 17 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities including Sichuan, Henan, and so on. (5) Based on the centrality analysis and the core-periphery structure, contributions of the provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities to population migration was very different. In the interprovincial population migration network, a few core nodes had strong control over the total amount and path of population migration. About 25-30% core provinces controlled 70-80% of the population migration and path of the country, and the control power continued to rise. Among these provinces, Guangdong and Beijing had overall control significance. Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Zhejiang were largely among the core control nodes. The role of Shanghai, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian as core areas had gradually increased. The role of Henan, Hubei, Hebei, and Xinjiang as core areas had declined. The overall migration path of the country is northward.

In addition to birth and death, migration is also an important factor that determines the level of population aging in different regions, especially under the current context of low fertility and low mortality in China. Drawing upon data from the fifth and sixth national population census of 287 prefecture-level cities in China, this study explored the spatial patterns of population aging and its trends from 2000 to 2010 in China. We further examined how the large-scale internal migration was related to the spatial differences and the changes of aging by using multivariate quantitative models. Findings showed that the percentage of elder cities (i.e. proportion of individuals aged 65 and above to total population is higher than 7%) increased from 50% to 90% in the total 287 cities within the decade. We also found that regional imbalances of population aging have changed since 2000 in China. The gap of aging level between East zone and the other three zones (i.e. West, Central, and North-east) has considerably narrowed down. In 2000, Eastern region had the greatest number (65) of and the largest proportion (74.7%) of elder cities among all four regions. By 2010, the proportion (87.4%) of elder cities in the eastern region was slightly lower than Central (91.4%), Western (88.2%) and North-east sectors (91.2%). Results from multivariate quantitative models showed that the regional differences of population aging appear to be affected much more by the large-scale internal migration with clear age selectivity and orientation preference than by the impact of fertility and mortality. Population aging is expected to continue in China, which will in turn exacerbate regional imbalances. Policies and implications are discussed to face the challenges that the divergent aging population may present in China.

2000年以来,中国的老龄化进程加快,人口老龄化已经成为中国社会经济发展必须面对的新常态与核心问题之一。本文从县域尺度出发,基于2000和2010年的人口普查数据,应用标准差椭圆、地理探测器等方法,分析了10年间中国2283个县域单元人口老龄化的空间分布、区域差异及其影响因素。结果表明：①人口老龄化空间分布模式多样,胡焕庸线西北半壁以均质化、轴带特征为主;而胡焕庸线东南半壁则呈现出核心—外围的分布特征。②2000-2010年间,人口老龄化均值从6.7%增至8.7%,表明中国县域全面进入老年型社会,步入老年型的县域多集中于内陆、东北地区、丝绸之路经济带沿线区;10年间人口老龄化总体空间格局较为稳定,但人口老龄化的变动趋势差异显著。③人口老龄化在“胡焕庸线”两侧、不同地域类型间、城乡间、民族自治地区与非民族自治地区间、贫困与非贫困地区间存在差异,且差异变动的方向并不一致。④影响人口老龄化的核心因素为各区域往期人口年龄结构、步入老年序列人口比重、人口流出的比例等。

Population ageing is becoming one of the major challenges that cannot be overlooked in the process of socioeconomic development in china. China has entered into the ageing society since 2000. Based on the county-scale data in the 2000 and 2010 censuses and using standard deviational ellipse (SDE) and geographical detector methods, this study systematically analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics and regional differences of population ageing. The results are as follows: First, Population ageing varies spatially. Population ageing on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau usually shows an even distribution. Population ageing on the southeastern side of China usually shows a center-periphery type of distribution and coastal-inland contrast. Second, the mean value of aged population proportion increased from 6.7% to 8.0% between 2000 and 2010. By 2010, China had become an aged society. The counties that had high percentage of aged population concentrated in the interior, the Northeast, and along the silk road economic region. The spatial pattern of population ageing is relatively stable, but significant difference was found in the trend of population ageing change. Third, there are regional differences in the population ageing of China, characterized by differences between urban areas and the countryside, ethnic minority regions and other regions, and poverty-stricken region and non-poverty areas. But the direction of change is not consistent. Last, There are many factors affecting population ageing level of counties, mainly including population ageing of the year 2000, population age structure, natural conditions, emigration rate, and economic development stage. The distribution of social and economic development level was not consistent with the distribution of population ageing change.

中国已全面进入快速老龄化社会,研究老龄人口空间集疏格局及形成机制,不仅是开展老龄人口空间研究的理论基础,也是指导面向老龄化社会城市更新问题的关键所在。选取地级以上行政单元为研究对象,基于五普、六普老年人口数据,采用老龄化率、集聚度和空间自相关等方法,定量分析2000年和2010年全国城市老年人口分布的集疏格局及空间关联。研究表明：全国地级以上城市总体处于老龄化中期水平,城市间老龄化空间分异较大,老年人口密集区城市主要分布在胡焕庸线以东,稀疏区城市则均位于胡焕庸线以西,这与总人口分布状况基本一致;高密区城市基本都分布在东部沿海地区,中密区主要分布在长三角、珠三角、中原、山东半岛、成渝和京津冀地区,为中国分布范围最广的老年人口集聚区;城市间人口老龄化存在较强的空间正相关特征,空间集聚状况有所增强,人口老龄化空间格局表现出以热点区为中心,逐渐向外围过渡的“中心—外围”结构;自然环境、经济环境、城市化建设、人口环境等是导致老年人口集疏格局的关键形成因素。

China has stepped into a rapid aging society. The study on the spatial pattern and generating mechanism of the aging population is not only the theoretical foundation for the spatial research on aging population, but also the guiding principle of the upgrading of aging society. This study selected administrative units above the prefecture level as subjects and quantitatively analyzed the spatial pattern and association of the aging population distribution in cities in 2000 and 2010, based on data of the fifth and sixth censuses and the methods like aging population rate, aggregation degree and spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that, cities above prefecture level all over the county are generally in the middle stage of aging, aging spatial differentiation is greater among cities, cities in densely aging-populated areas are mainly located to the east of Hu Line, and cities in sparsely aging-populated areas are all found to the west of Hu Line, which coincide with the national population distribution. Most of the cities with high density are distributed in the eastern coastal areas, and cities with medium density are mostly in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Central Plains, Shandong Peninsula, Chengdu-Chongqing Region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, which dominate the aging population areas. There is an obvious positive spatial association in aging population among cities, the spatial aggregation is further enhanced, and the spatial pattern of population aging shows a "Core-Periphery" structure with the hot-spots as the center and gradually spreading to the outskirts; natural environment, economic condition, urbanization construction, and population environment and the like are the key factors influencing the spatial pattern of the aging population.

老龄化和城市化是当今世界面临的两大人口问题。城市群是城市发展到成熟阶段的空间组织形态,是老龄化的特殊区域。本文基于2000年和2010年全国人口普查分县数据,综合应用地理探测器和变异系数等方法,清晰地刻画了中国20个城市群人口老龄化的空间格局及其变化特征,审视了人口老龄化变化的影响因素。结果表明：① 2000年中国城市群人口老龄化平均水平为7.32%,其中12个城市群的人口属于成年型,到2010年时人口老龄化平均水平已上升为9.00%,除珠三角与宁夏沿黄城市群外,其余18个城市群均步入了老年型人口,表现出明显的水平升级与类型替变态势。② 老龄化高值、较高值区域不断向内陆城市群跃迁。③ 城市群老龄化的增量和增速存在显著的区域差异,老龄化水平的低值区和高值区增量少、增速慢,而较低值、中值和较高值区增量多、增速快。总体上表现出区域性城市群——国家级城市群——地区性城市群老龄化速度递减的态势。④ 在城市群内部,老龄化分布格局表现出隆升—塌缩并存的现象。国家级城市群内部老龄化分布格局从隆升结构向塌缩结构转变,城市群中心区人口老龄化水平降低;而地区性城市群和区域性城市群内部老龄化分布格局则从均质结构向隆升结构转变,中心区人口老龄化水平上升。⑤ 城市群人口老龄化是内外因素综合影响的结果,基期老龄化程度、人口年龄结构替变和人口流动性是主导性因素。其中人口年龄结构的普遍性抬升是城市群老龄化升级与类型替变的关键,低龄人口迁入到城市群对人口老龄化则起到“稀释作用”,城市群发育阶段不同引致的聚集和扩散效应对老龄化则起到诱导作用。

Aging and urbanization are two major population issues currently facing the world. Urban agglomeration is an advanced form of urbanization that encompasses the spatial organization of cities within a specific geographical area, and in which the process of aging differs from that in other regions. Based on county-specific data from population surveys in 2000 and 2010, we determined the spatial patterns and variations of aging populations in 20 urban agglomerations in China using geographical detector-based and coefficient of variation methods. We also examined the contributing factors of population aging variability. Results demonstrated that in 2000, older people accounted for 7.32% of the urban agglomeration demographic structure, with 12 of the 20 urban agglomerations defined as adult-type populations. In 2010, however, older people accounted for 9.00% of the urban agglomeration demographic structure and, except for those in the Pearl River Delta and Ningxia areas along the Yellow River, all the urban agglomerations entered the elderly population stage. Moreover, high-age and moderately high-age regions expanded towards inland urban agglomerations, with population aging increasing obviously and population type changing from adult to aging. In addition, significant regional differences in the incremental increases in the number of older people and growth rates of the aging populations existed in the urban agglomerations. Low-age and high-age regions had smaller increments and growth rates, whereas moderately low-age, mid-age, and moderately high-age regions had greater increments and growth rates, indicating a declining aging rate in the order of regional, national, and local urban agglomerations. Within each urban agglomeration, the distribution pattern of aging showed the coexistence of uplift and collapse. The distribution pattern of aging within national urban agglomerations changed from an increasing to collapsing structure, and population aging in central China reduced. Conversely, regional urban agglomerations changed from a homogeneous to an increasing structure, and population aging in the central region increased. Population aging of urban agglomerations was the result of internal and external factors, with changes in base period aging, population age structure, and population fluidity being the predominant factors. Universal uplift of the population age structure was a key factor affecting aging and population types in urban agglomerations. Furthermore, low-age population immigration into urban agglomerations had a "diluting effect" on population aging, and aggregation and diffusion effects caused by different development stages of urban agglomeration played important roles in aging and population migration.

人口老龄化的度量包括数量（老年人口数量和占比）和质量（人口预期寿命）两个方面。基于第六次人口普查和历年统计年鉴数据,综合运用空间自相关、Sullivan健康预期寿命测度模型、地理加权回归等方法,刻画了1990-2016年中国人口老龄化“数量”与“质量”的空间格局及其变化特征,并对其作用机制进行深入探讨。结果表明：① 总体上,人口老龄化“数量”与“质量”的发展并不协调,存在空间差异性。② 从“数量”上,“胡焕庸线”东南半壁老龄化程度高于西北半壁,但增速变化存在阶段性特征。老龄化水平存在高值和低值集聚区。高值集聚区由沿海向内陆扩展,位于西北地区的老龄化低值集聚区则逐渐萎缩。③ 从“质量”上看,“胡焕庸线”东南半壁人口预期寿命优于西北半壁,东部沿海省市远高于其他地区。④ 老年人口预期寿命与健康预期寿命发展并不同步,存在性别差异与区域功能缺损扩张效应。相比中西部,东部地区预期寿命与健康预期寿命均占优势。⑤ 从形成机制来看,“数量”格局的形成受人口自然变动与机械变动共同作用,其中,出生率为主导因素;对于“质量”而言,自然环境差异、社会环境发展不协调等是影响预期寿命的重要因素,其中经济发展与卫生医疗事业进步是寿命延长的主要推动力。

Based on the Sixth National Census and annual China Statistical Yearbook, the paper characterizes the spatial patterns and variation features of the "quantity" and "quality" of China's aging and its mechanism over the past 30 years or more by using spatial autocorrelation, Sullivan healthy life expectancy measurement model, and geographical weighted regression. The results are shown as follows: (1) Overall, the development of "quantity" of aging is not coordinated with that of "quality", and there are spatial differences between them. (2) In terms of "quantity", the figure of aging in the southeast half of "Hu Huanyong Line" is higher than that in the northwest half, but the change of growth rate has a phased feature. There are high and low value agglomeration areas at the aging level. The high-value agglomeration area expands from the coastal area to the inland area, while the low-value agglomeration area located in the northwest of China is gradually shrinking. (3) In terms of "quality", the figure of the southeast half of "Hu Huanyong Line" is better than that of the northwest half, and the eastern coastal provinces enjoy far higher figures than other regions. (4) In terms of "quality" characteristics represented by life expectancy, the figure of the life expectancy and the healthy life expectancy are not synchronized, and there are gender differences and morbidity expansion effect. Compared with the central and western regions, the eastern region has higher life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. (5) From the perspective of formation mechanism, the formation of the "quantity" pattern of aging is affected by the interaction between natural and migrating population variations, with the birth rate being the major element. As for "quality", differences in natural environment and uncoordinated development of social environment are significant factors affecting life expectancy, and economic development and the health and medical services progress are the main driving forces for greater longevity.

将探索性空间数据分析方法应用于人口老龄化区域差异研究,以福建省为例,分析1990-2010年间县域人口老龄化时空演变特征,并探讨导致格局演变的驱动机制。结果表明：① 人口老龄化的总体空间格局存在较强的空间正相关性,但空间集聚有所减弱。② 热点区（高度热点区）由沿海向内陆演进,属跃迁式突变；边缘区发展方向刚好相反,属收缩式渐变。③ 总变异中随机性因素增大,结构化分异减弱；区域空间差异愈发显著,主要体现在西北—东南方向上。④ 各类因素对不同地区人口老龄化的影响程度和方向各不相同,但在空间上按一定的方向产生具有一定规律性的分化。总体而言,死亡率和每千人拥有病床数对人口老龄化贡献为正,出生率、人均受教育年限及迁入率具有抑制作用,而人均GDP对人口老龄化既有推动也有抑制作用。

Currently, the studies on domestic population aging mostly focus on the demographic effects and social effects, where the present state, the development process, the causes and the effects of population aging have been widely discussed from a non-spatial perspective. However, a growing number of studies shows that population aging also has significant spatial-temporal evolution characteristics that are as important as the economic and social development aspects. This article attempts to describe regional disparity of population aging process in a different perspective, i.e., regional spatial heterogeneity. With this objective, we collected the census data of Fujian in 1990, 2000 and 2010 and various relevant statistical data of corresponding years from the Fujian Statistical Yearbook. A population aging geographical database was established with these data and the sub-county level administrative map of Fujian Province using ArcGIS9.3. Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods as well as Moran's I, Getis-Ord <i>G</i>_i^*, function of variogram, and GWR (geographical weighted regression) were applied to examine population aging disparity in Fujian since 1990, aiming to explore the spatial agglomeration pattern, the process of the evolution and the underlying dynamic mechanisms of the spatial-temporal variation of the county level population aging distribution. The result provides further insight into the complexity and uncertainty of the regional disparity of population aging. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The county level population aging distribution of Fujian Province shows a strong spatial correlation with a downward temporal trend. (2) The spatial structures of hotspot and cold spot distributions also have clear differences. The hotspots moved from the coastal area to inland during the study period, while the cold spots shifted in the opposite direction, presenting reversed gradients. (3) In the overall variation, the influence of random factors has increased and structural difference has decreased. At the same time, regional spatial differences have become more significant, and the difference in the northwest-southeast direction was the primary contributor to the widening population aging regional disparity. (4) All factors that were considered affected population aging, but in different areas the direction and degree of influence varied considerably. In general, mortality rate and the number of hospital beds per thousand people played a positive role in prompting population aging, while birth rate, schooling years per capita, and immigration rate have an inhibitory influence on population aging. Per capita GDP affected population aging both positively and negatively. All in all, the dynamic mechanism of spatial-temporal variation of the county level population aging in Fujian Province has been extensively and quantitatively examined in this study from a spatial variability perspective. Admittedly, what have been discussed in this paper are far from complete, especially the population aging evaluation indexes—different evaluation indexes and variables may lead to some differences in parameter estimation and evaluation result. Further research should examine the appropriateness of indexes for evaluating population aging.

文章从乡村微观空间视角分析乡村人口老龄化的空间进展及其影响。利用乡村层级微观数据的研究发现：目前,全国有超过78%的乡村已经进入老龄化社会,乡村的深度老龄化和超级老龄化急速发展的现象非常突出。利用泰尔指数的测度结果显示：乡村人口老龄化发展的区域内部差异比其区域间差异更加突出,总体来看绝大多数地区的乡村老年人口分布呈现比较分散的状态。研究指出:老龄化、乡村老年人口分布与乡村发展是乡村人口老龄化空间作用机制的3个关键因素,伴随着乡村老年人口分布的演进和深度老龄化与超级老龄化的进展,应密切关注收缩型乡村的老龄化进程,关注深度老龄化和超级老龄化乡村的发展,前瞻性应对乡村人口老龄化带来的城乡空间经济冲击。

From the perspective of rural micro-space development, this paper studies the spatial development of the ageing of rural China and its possible impact. Based on the rural township data, it finds that more than 78% villages have become an ageing society. What is striking is that many villages are experiencing deep and even super ageing. Using the Theil Index, it shows that ageing of rural China is characterized by a bigger intra-regional than inter-regional heterogeneity. In general, the distribution of the elder population in most rural areas is more scattered. It argues that the three factors including the degree of ageing, the distribution of the rural elder population, and the rural development are critical to the spatial effect of rural ageing. With the evolution of the distribution of the rural elder population and the rapid development of population ageing in the villages, policy-makers should pay more attention to the ageing process of the shrinking villages and the development of the villages with deep or super degree of ageing, in order to better plan and deal with the spatial-economic challenges brought by the rural ageing process.

人口迁移流动形式是构成人口迁移流动特征的一个关键要素。在中国进入人口城镇化中后期后,准确判断和把握人口迁移流动形式的转变是一项十分重要的工作。论文基于人口迁移流动形式转变的相关理论与国际经验,考察现阶段中国人口迁移流动形式转变的进程和特点及由此产生的问题与挑战。研究发现,中国人口迁移流动形式已发生转变,并突出表现为人口回流现象不断增多、省际和省内人口迁移流动此消彼长的趋势日益明显;城—城流动显著增加,人口的城-城间流动将渐成常态化;流动人口户籍城镇化进程开始加快,其城乡两栖生计的重心向城镇转移;住房驱动下的流动人口就地、异地城镇化渐成趋势等。同时,人口迁移流动形式转变过程中面临着人口回流推动的就近就地城镇化发展可持续性不足;城—城流动向东部少数省市聚集的态势明显;以户籍城镇化主导的农业流动人口市民化面临多重障碍等问题与挑战。最后,从流动人口城镇化的空间载体构建、城市治理方式转变、中西部小城镇自我可持续发展能力提升等方面提出相应的建议。

The form of population migration and mobility constitutes a key element of the characteristics of migration. Since China has entered the late-intermediate stage of urbanization, it is very important to accurately identify and understand the transformation in the form of population migration and mobility. While a growing body of literature has been generated and significant progress has been made on China's population migration and mobility and its determinants, an important inadequacy of relevant research are often focused on rural to urban population migration and mobility, neglecting the multi-dimensional forms of population migration and mobility. Based on relevant theories and international experience relating to the transformation in the forms of population migration and mobility, and using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), Report on Monitoring and Investigation of Migrant Workers in China, and relevant statistics, this study examined the processes of the transformation in the forms of the population migration and mobility in China and their characteristics at the present stage and the issues and challenges arising therefrom. The results show that there have been significant changes in the forms of population migration and mobility in China, and such changes mainly manifest in the following aspects: First, there has been a steady increase in return migration and short-distance migration; Second, inter-urban migration has also significantly increased and become increasingly common; Third, the urbanization process of the floating population based on the rural-urban transfer of their hukou has started to accelerate, and their rural-urban multiple livelihoods has increasingly shifted towards the urban end; Fourth, there has been a developing trend of urbanization driven by housing purchases in both migrants' places of origin and destination. The study also identified issues and challenges in the process of transformation in the forms of population migration and mobility, including: First, there is a lack of sustainability in in situ urbanization promoted by return migration; Second, urban-urban migration are highly concentrated in a few provinces of the eastern region; Third, there are still many obstacles for the urbanization of rural migrants based on their hukou transfer. Finally, the article puts forward some policy recommendations from the perspectives of the construction of multi-level spatial system of urbanization of the floating population, the transformation of urban governance mode, and the promotion of the capacity for sustainable development of small towns in central and western regions.

基于户籍人口自然与机械增长的分解,估算2011—2017年全国地级及以上城市的户籍迁移人口,对比分析户籍迁移和人口流动的时空特征,评估国家新型城镇化战略中按规模等级引导城市落户政策的影响。结果表明,近年来,中国户籍迁移日趋活跃,人口迁移与流动的空间格局高度耦合；迁入热点区主要集中在沿海三大城市群,迁出地较为分散,以长江中游和东北地区迁出最多。特大城市对流动人口落户的吸引力最强,一线城市户籍迁移持续活跃,新兴二线城市的迁入规模快速提升；而即使普遍没有落户限制,中小城市的吸引力仍十分有限,户籍迁出趋势持续强化。

Migration in China is a process that involves not only floating to destinations but also settling down there by gaining local Hukou. The second step, in particular, has become the primary concern of the recent new-type urbanization. But, important as it is, our knowledge about this particular step is severely restricted due largely to data limitation, and this article tries to overcome the restriction. In the article, we first estimate the number of Hukou migration at the 277 prefecture level cities (not including Sanya, Danzhou, Haidong, Hulunbuir, Bayannur, Wuhu, Bengbu, Zhengzhou, Pingdingshan, Nanyang, Huangshi and cities of Xinjiang, Xizang, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan) between 2011 and 2017; We then compare its spatiotemporal patterns with those of floating population over the period, and we further evaluate the impact of New-type Urbanization Plan on its patterns. Results show that Hukou migration has become increasingly active in recent years, and its spatial patterns are highly similar to those of the floating population. Popular destinations are primarily situated in the three coastal regions, whereas the geographic distribution of origin is much less clustered, with the highest out-Hukou-migration being found in the middle Yangtze River and Northeast China. Mega-cities are where the local Hukou is most pursed, first-tier cities maintain a persistent attraction for Hukou migration; and the emerging second-tier cities have seen a rapid increase in the intake of this migration. Small and median-sized cities, by contrast, are very uncompetitive, despite that all the restrictions on Hukou transfer have been removed there. These cities have even seen an increasing out-migration of their Hukou-holders. The results revealed here are the basis on which our advice for policy makers are made. The advice is not simply on the issue of Hukou reforms, but also touches the topics of balanced regional development and reduced urban inequality. The results also highlight the exciting research prospect of both Hukou migration and new-type urbanization, a prospect that requires both creative imaginations and vigorous investigations of China’s prospect of both Hukou migration and new-type urbanization, a prospect that requires both creative imaginations and vigorous investigations of China’s migration.

城市群是国家工业化和城镇化发展到高级阶段的产物,是高度一体化和同城化的城市群体,城市群形成发育过程是一个各城市之间由竞争变为竞合的漫长自然过程,遵循自然发展规律。中国正处在新型城镇化转型发展的新阶段,已进入21世纪引领全球城市群发展的新时代,中国城市群研究与建设的经验模式正在被全球城市群建设所效仿和借鉴。本文从理论上梳理并提出了城市群形成发育遵循的自然规律,包括城市群形成发育的阶段性规律、城市群多尺度空间集约利用传导规律、城市群空间晶体结构组合规律、城市群自然生长的育树成林规律和城市群可持续发展的梯度爬升规律。地理学家遵循这些发展规律,从学术理论、技术方法、决策支持和规划实践等方面为中国城市群的研究和发展做出了不可替代的重大贡献,主要包括提出并科学界定了城市群概念,提出了城市群空间范围的识别标准,创建了城市群空间集约拓展与布局仿真决策支持技术链,研制了城市群空间集约拓展与布局仿真决策支持系统软件链,提出了中国城市群空间组织的“5+9+6”新格局,研制出国内第一部《城市群规划技术规程》,编制完成了全国多数城市群发展规划,转化为国家决策的重要依据。未来中国城市群的发展与研究中,地理学家发挥作用的空间越来越大,地理学家肩负着不可推卸的责任使命,应责无旁贷地采用定性与定量相结合的研究方法,引用大数据、智能决策支持技术等新手段解决城市群发展面临的一系列问题,一如既往地为城市群发展吸纳众智、献计献策,发挥更大作用,做出更大贡献。

Urban agglomeration refers to a highly integrated city and town group. It comes into being with the development of industrialization and urbanization to the advanced stage. The formation and development of urban agglomeration is a long natural process, which is transformed from competition to cooperation. China is in a new stage of urbanization transition, and has entered a new era of leading the global urban agglomeration development in the 21st century. The research and experience model of China's urban agglomeration has been accepted by global urban agglomeration construction as reference. In this paper, the natural law of urban agglomeration is proposed, including developmental gradual law, multi-scale transmission law of space intensive utilization, the combination law of spatial crystal structure, the natural growth of the breeding tree, and the gradient upgrade law of sustainable development. Following these laws, Chinese geographers have made great contributions to the research and development of China's urban agglomerations, which focuses on academic theory, technical method, decision support and planning practice. We developed and scientifically defined the concept of urban agglomeration, and first adopted the identification standard of urban agglomeration space. We established the spatial intensive development and layout simulation decision support technology chain in urban agglomeration, and developed related software chain. We laid out the new pattern of 5+9+6 in the spatial organization of China's urban agglomerations, and formulated the first China's urban agglomeration planning technical regulation. We completed the development plan of most urban agglomerations in China, which has become an important basis for decision-making at the national level. In the future, geographers will play a growing role and shoulder the responsibility in the development of Chinese urban agglomerations. We should combine qualitative and quantitative methods, and use big data and intelligent decision support technology to solve a series of problems in the development of this cause. Only in this way can Chinese geographers make greater contributions to the development of urban agglomerations.

城市群在中国城镇化格局中占有重要地位,也是快速城市化时期的主要人口流入地。本文关注京津冀、长三角、珠三角、长江中游和成渝五大城市群,利用人口普查和流动人口动态监测调查数据,从流入人口分布格局、流动范围和来源地等多维度剖析城市群人口流入的空间模式,并从居留和落户意愿空间差异的视角探讨空间模式的发展趋势及其对流入地和流出地的影响。研究发现,各城市群流入人口向中心城市持续集中,等级和空间分布格局总体稳定;流动范围有所扩大,省内流动增速普遍高于省际;沿海城市群人口吸引范围大但仍服从距离衰减律,不同来源地流入人口的城市群偏好存在差异。在流入地,沿海城市群中心城市面临流动人口管理服务的持续挑战,内陆城市群中心城市和一般城市吸引力并存;在流出地,平等开放的高质量公共服务供给是吸引人口回流的重要途径,少数地区的人口流失可能成为较长期的现象。

Internal migration in China has presented a series of new characteristics recently. The secondary migration and spatial redistribution of existing migrants become increasingly important in determining the future patterns of urbanization. Urban agglomerations (UAs) have long been the major destination of China's internal migration. They are also appointed as the main form of future urbanization in the recently released national planning of new-type urbanization. Five major UAs were selected as a case study, including three coastal ones, namely the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Pearl River Delta (PRD), and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH), and two inland ones, namely the Middle Yangtze River (MYR) and the Chengdu-Chongqing (CC) region. Based on data of the latest population census and the dynamic monitoring survey of floating population in the five major UAs, this paper first examined the spatial patterns of in-migrants from multiple dimensions of destination, origin, and distance of migration. The trends and urbanization effects of migration on the destination and origin were then assessed by comparing the settlement and hukou transfer intentions of migrants with different origins and destinations. The results showed the coexistence of common and distinct features in these mega regions. Although the continuous attractiveness of central cities for migrants was observed in all regions, peripheral cities in the YRD and PRD have become increasingly attractive as well, leading to a moderately dispersing trend in these two pioneering coastal UAs. Moreover, the concentration level and spatial distribution of migrants among cities were generally stable in the YRD and PRD but continuously adjusting in the BTH and two inland UAs. The fastest growth was found in inter-county migration within province and the slowest in intra-county migration. The coastal UAs were strongly preferred by inter-provincial migrants, while the inland ones could only attract migrants from the same or surrounding provinces. Despite this, significant distance attenuation was found in all of them. In terms of the origins of migrants, those from central provinces had flowed mainly to the YRD and PRD, whereas those from the northeast showed a high preference for the BTH region. We can anticipate the future patterns of migration and urbanization from the settlement intentions of migrants from and to different cities. From the destination view, the advantage in public services made central cities considerably more attractive than other cities. Hence, they are expected to be continuously faced with severe contradiction between supply and demand of public services. In the inland UAs, however, central cities and ordinary ones are able to share the pressure of public service provision. From the original view, the high-quality and equally accessible public services are important for inland regions to attract return migrants, and providing high possibility for the return-migration-induced urbanization. However, the population loss in the northeast may become a long-term trend that can hardly be reversed in the visible future.

基于2000、2010年中国人口普查分县数据资料,对比分析省际、省内跨县流动人口的空间格局、形成机制及城镇化的差异。结果表明:① 省际、省内跨县流动人口的集聚发展趋势存在差异,省际流动人口表现为&#x0201C;聚中有散&#x0201D;,即集聚程度较高,分散化迹象趋于明显;省内跨县流动人口则表现为&#x0201C;散中有聚&#x0201D;,其较为分散地分布省会、地级市等大中城市,在向前1%城市集聚。② 流动人口流入地的选择受政府和市场力量双重作用的影响,省际流动人口倾向于有更多就业机会、更高工资水平的省会级城市;省内跨县流动人口更看重就业机会,更偏向地级市,财政支出对其流入地选择影响更大。③ 省际、省内跨县流动人口对2010年全国城镇化水平的贡献分别为4.24%,2.74%,前者推动着东部沿海地区城市群的发展优化,后者则强化着中西部大中城市&#x0201C;一城独大&#x0201D;的态势。

Based on the data of the 2000 and 2010 China Census counties, this paper compares and analyzes the spatial pattern, formation mechanism and urbanization of the inter-provincial and intra-provincial floating population. The results are as follows: 1) The polarization pattern of the Inter- and Intra-provincial floating population is weakening, and the proportion of the floating population absorbed by the top 10 cities has declined. In the trend of agglomeration, the inter-provincial floating population showed ‘High concentration while showing signs of decentralization’, that is, the degree of agglomeration was higher, and the signs of decentralization became more obvious. The proportion of inter-provincial floating population absorbed by the former 1% city decreased significantly. The floating population in the province is characterized by “Dispersion of distribution while developing toward agglomeration”. It is more scattered and distributed in large and medium-sized cities such as provincial capitals and prefecture-level cities, and is still gathering in 1% of cities. 2) The inter-provincial and intra-provincial floating population is affected by the dual role of the government and market forces. The inter-provincial floating population is more inclined to the provincial capitals and municipalities with more employment opportunities and higher wages in the process of selecting inflows. The floating population in the province pays more attention to employment opportunities, and prefers to flow to prefecture-level cities. In contrast to the inter-provincial population, urban public services have a greater impact on the inflow of floating population in the Intra-provincial Floating population. 3) The “molecular effect” of the inter-provincial and intra-provincial floating population has increased the level of urbanization through the “molecular effect” of urban population changes. The contribution of the inter-provincial and intra-provincial floating population to urbanization reached 4.24% and 2.74% respectively in 2010. In addition, the inter-provincial and intra-provincial floating population has also greatly affected the hierarchical system and spatial distribution of China's urban system.

依据最新的第六次全国人口普查资料以及其他相关数据资料,文章对当前我国流动人口发展的主要特征、面临的主要问题进行了分析和概括,并提出解决问题的对策和建议。分析认为:当前我国流动人口展现出规模持续快速增长、流动性减弱、家庭化进程已完成第二阶段并开始向第三阶段过渡、流向仍呈现向沿海地区集中但已展现出分散趋势、新生代流动人口逐渐成为流动人口的主体等一系列明显特征;流动人口面临的失业增加、社会保障缺失、子女教育、社会融入等问题是当前和今后一段时期的主要问题。流动人口将扎根城市并大量存在,相关法规、政策和制度制定应该以此为基础,关注新生代和流动人口子女、重视提高流动人口家庭福利、加快流动人口社会保障体系建设。

This study&nbsp; analyzes the trends and current&nbsp; characteristics of floating population&nbsp; in&nbsp; China&nbsp; and the major&nbsp; challenges they&nbsp; are facing,on the basis of&nbsp; the&nbsp; latest&nbsp; population&nbsp; census&nbsp; data． The&nbsp; research&nbsp; shows that the&nbsp; size of floating population has increased continuously&nbsp; and rapidly,their mobility&nbsp; intensity&nbsp; is weakening,migration&nbsp; destinations&nbsp; are&nbsp; beginning&nbsp; to&nbsp; decentralize,majority&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; migrants&nbsp; are&nbsp; moving&nbsp; with&nbsp; their spouses and more and more of&nbsp; them are taking their young children with them,the new – generation floaters whom were born&nbsp; after&nbsp; 1980&nbsp; account for&nbsp; more than half&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; entire floating population． The floaters are fa- cing challenges such as unemployment,lack of social security,inequality in children &rsquo;s education,and bar- </br>riers in&nbsp; social&nbsp; integration． This article proposes corresponding&nbsp; suggestions． The problem of&nbsp; new – generation floaters and floating children&nbsp; should be addressed adequately,and there&nbsp; is an&nbsp; urgent&nbsp; need to&nbsp; accelerate the establishment&nbsp; of&nbsp; social&nbsp; security for migrants．&nbsp;

基于中国第四、五、六次人口普查数据和经济计量方法,以县域为尺度对边境省份广西的城镇化和人口迁移时空演变和动因机制进行分析,结果表明：1）在县域人口城镇化水平提高且与全国均值差距缩小的同时,边境省份大部分地区城镇化率仍低于全国平均水平；从空间上看,县域城镇化呈非均衡发展趋势,中心市辖区水平高、具有一定的辐射作用但分布零散。开放较早的北部湾地区和毗邻发达省份广东的桂东、桂东南城镇化水平高于桂西、桂北地区。2）县域人口迁移具有显著的空间正相关效应,且2000―2010年其空间自相关程度集聚增强,但格局基本保持稳定,县域尺度人口迁移的高值区与城镇化发展较快地区基本同步,集中于桂东南及北部湾地区。3）对于兼有国界、海岸和省界等三类影响人口迁移的边界的广西而言,后两类边界较明显地&ldquo;吸引&rdquo;人口向其邻近地区活跃迁移与城镇化集聚,而国界目前对人口流动仍有一定的阻碍作用。4）从影响人口流入地选择的角度看迁移的空间格局与动因,服务业的发展正成为吸纳人口迁入的主要力量,自由贸易、商贸服务、沿边通道与口岸建设以及&ldquo;一带一路&rdquo;倡议是当今重塑中国西南边境地理的主要动力。

Based on the fourth, fifth and sixth population census data of China, econometrics method and the case of Guangxi on county scale, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of urbanization and migration. The results are as follows: 1) The county urbanization rate of border province has witnessed rapid growth and its gap with country’s average level becomes narrowed, but the rates in most of the counties are still below the national mean. The spatial distribution among counties shows a trend of imbalanced development of urbanization. The distribution of center municipal districts, which have higher urbanization level and play diffusion role, is dispersal. Those areas opening to the outside world earlier, such as the Beibu Gulf region, and the east and southeast of Guangxi adjacent to Guangdong, a developed province, have higher urbanization level than the west and north of Guangxi. 2) The population migration at county level in border province shows a strong trend of spatial autocorrelation, and the degree of spatial autocorrelation agglomeration increased from 2000 to 2010, but the spatial pattern remained stable during the study period. Migration flow and urbanization pattern are basically consistent and their high value regions are both concentrated in the southeastern Guangxi and the Beibu Gulf area. 3) There are three kinds of boundaries which influence the migration in Guangxi, i.e., national boundary, coast line and provincial border. The latter two types of boundaries play a significant role in “attracting” immigration and the development of urbanization and agglomeration along with them, while the national boundary is still having some shield or barrier effects on people movement. 4) From the perspective of immigration destination choosing, as for the spatial pattern of migration, service industries are becoming the main forces absorbing population to move-in. Free trade arrangements, business service, and passages or ports construction along the borders and “One Belt One Road Initiatives” are the main driving forces reshaping border geography in Southwest of China.

第七次全国人口普查数据显示：中国流动人口规模大幅度扩大；城镇对流动人口的吸引度不断增强；流动人口已成为城镇人口增长的主导因素；城城流动人口规模大幅度提升；流动人口仍高度集中地流向东部地区；市辖区内人户分离人口增长最快；国际移民稳健增长。迁徙中国形态得到进一步确认。

According to the 7th Population Census, the size of the floating population has further grown; the urban attraction to floating population keeps increasing; the floating population has become the leading factor of urban population growth; urban to urban population migration has expanded; the floating population is still highly concentrated to move to the eastern region; population who live in places other than their household registration areas has strikingly increased; the international immigration has steadily grown. In summary, highly active population movements in China get further confirmation.

户口迁移是真正意义上的迁移,并与城镇化密切相关。文章通过对 2013 年全年户 口迁移业务的数据分析,系统考察中国人口的户口迁移现象以及户籍人口的城镇化。研究结果显 示: 户籍制度改革无法惠及所有人群,需要利用公共服务的全覆盖来弥补政策的不足; 三类大城市 城镇户口的准入门槛相对较高并呈现出精英化倾向,大城市户籍人口城镇化的方向应当在严格控 制人口数量的前提下,向中低文化程度的劳动者有序、适当开放; 中小城市和小城镇户口对于高层 次人才的吸引力严重不足,为促进户籍人口城镇化,应该将一批有潜力的中小城市做大、做强; 提高 户籍人口城镇化率的关键环节在于对农业转移人口的妥善安排,在此过程中要防止&ldquo;半城镇化&rdquo;现 象的出现。

&nbsp;In the Chinese context,migration is defined to be move with hukou relocation,which is closely associated with urbanization. Over the past two years,the central government has attached great importance to the urbanization progress of the registered residents. A new round of household registration system reform was launched in 2014. Based on the data of hukou registration transition in 2013,this study examines patterns and determinants of household migration and urbanization of regis- tered population. Results indicate that the difference of hukou status between rural and urban areas was the fundamental cause in holding back household migration. Moreover,migration to big cities is pre- ferred by elites,while the medium-sized cities and small towns are lack of attraction for these people.

Post-reform China has been experiencing two major demographic changes: an increasingly aging population and an extraordinary surge of rural-urban migrants. The question we ask is: are these two demographic changes related? If yes, then, how? The standard view in the migration literature is that the older the migrant, the lower the likelihood of migration. This paper proposes a simple theory of temporary migration for unskilled labor to fit the context of China. Motivated by our model, we then use both cross-sectional micro data and panel macro data to examine the potential impacts of aging on migration. We find that shifts in China’s age distribution have generated significant changes in the country’s migration patterns: migration will shift to closer provinces (probably switching from interprovincial migration to intra-provincial migration) and will concentrate to a few destination provinces.