The issue of urban shrinkage has become the new ‘normal’ across Europe: a large number of urban areas find themselves amongst the cities losing population. According to recent studies, almost 42 per cent of all large European cities are currently shrinking. In eastern Europe, shrinking cities have formed the overwhelming majority – here, three out of four cities report a decrease in population. Shrinkage has proved to be a very diverse and complex phenomenon. In our understanding, a considerable and constant loss of population by an urban area classifies it as a shrinking city. So, while the indicator of shrinkage used here is rather simple, the nature of the process and its causes and consequences for the affected urban areas are multifaceted and need to be explained and understood in further detail. Set against this background, the article presents, first, urban shrinkage as both spatially and temporally uneven. Second, this article shows that the causes of urban shrinkage are as varied as they are numerous. We explore the ‘pluralist world of urban shrinkage’ in the European Union and beyond. The article provides an original process model of urban shrinkage, bringing together its causes, impacts and dynamics, and setting them in the context of locally based urban trajectories. The main argument of this arrticle is that there is no ‘grand explanatory heuristics’ of shrinkage; a ‘one-size-fits-all’ explanatory approach to shrinkage cannot deliver. To progress and remain relevant, one ought to move away from outcome-orientated towards process-orientated research on urban shrinkage.

中国经历了史无前例的快速城镇化进程,与之相伴随的是更加迅猛的土地城镇化过程。基于2000年和2015年中国土地利用现状遥感监测数据,综合运用空间分析、多元回归和地理加权回归的方法,深入分析了中国县域土地城镇化的区域特征及其影响因素。结果表明：① 中国县域土地城镇化率年均增长2.77%,其中近40%的区县城镇化率年均增长大于3%;在空间上呈现出不同于人口城镇化的扩散趋势。② 中国县域土地城镇化的南北分异规律较东西分异更为明显。土地城镇化的高值区域始终集中在胡焕庸线的东南半壁,而围绕主要的城市群地区则形成“组团式”增长的热点区,地区间差异趋于收敛。③ 人口集聚、经济发展、产业结构、城市特性与地理区位等要素对县域土地城镇化空间分异格局的影响较为显著、稳定,各要素对土地城镇化的影响均具有明显的时空依赖特征。分析揭示县域土地城镇化的时空特征及其动力机制,对于科学认识新型城镇化和实施城乡融合、乡村振兴战略,具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。

In the unprecedented urbanization process in China, urbanized land has expanded quickly at the same pace or even faster than the growth of the urban population. Employing both the ordinary least square and geographical weighted regression, we analyzed the spatial patterns and factors influencing land urbanization at the county level in 2000 and 2015. This analysis was assisted by land-use data for China acquired from the resource and environment data cloud platform. The research reveals the following points: (1) The annual growth rate of land urbanization experienced 2.77 percentages on average from 2000 to 2015. About 40% of the counties witnessed an annual increase of 3% or above. Land urbanization was manifested in a pattern of diffusion, which differed from the continued spatial polarization of demographic urbanization in China. (2) Geographically, the north-south differentiation of land urbanization was clearer than the east-west differentiation. And the high-value regions tended to be located to the southeast of "Hu Line". Counties surrounding those metropolitan areas were detected as hotspots of land urbanization. In general, there was a convergent trend of land urbanization among regions in China. (3) The factors of population growth, economic development, industrial structure, city/county features, and geographical location have played significant roles in the spatial disparities of land urbanization at the county level. Besides, the spatio-temporal dependence of their influences were also explored. This study on land urbanization and its influencing factors at the county level advances our theoretical and practical understandings of the new-type urbanization, urban and rural integration, and rural revitalization strategies in contemporary China.

珠江三角洲是世界范围内经济和城镇发展“增长奇迹”的典型地区,当中以东莞为代表的“外向型城镇化”模式长期受到国内外学者的关注。然而,2008年的金融危机冲击对东莞经济造成巨大冲击,市域范围同时出现了普遍增长与局部收缩两种截然不同的新空间现象。随着中国经济步入新常态,城镇化快速发展过程中伴随的局部收缩现象逐渐引起学界和社会的广泛讨论。基于此,从城镇发展要素的集聚与流动出发,结合经济、人口和用地三个维度,提出理解城镇增长与收缩的分析框架,并对不同类型特征的城镇进行区分：持续增长、转型增长、潜在收缩与显著收缩。在实证分析部分,文章以东莞为案例,通过考察各镇街单元城镇增长与收缩的时间演变和空间格局,结合典型城镇案例分析,从经济危机冲击、刘易斯转折点、路径依赖存在、制度环境安排四个方面探讨东莞城镇增长与收缩的形成机制,最后对增长与收缩的未来深化研究方向进行讨论。

The Pearl River Delta (PRD), a typical area of rapid urbanization with Dongguan as its most representative case of the 'exo-urbanization' model, has thus long been attracting scholarly attention. However, after the financial crisis in 2008, a new spatial phenomenon has emerged in Dongguan, with overall growth and partial shrinkage taking place in the same city area. As the Chinese economy steps into a state of New Normal, partial shrinkage during a process of rapid urbanization has kindled heated debate. Starting from the vacancy phenomenon caused by the outflow of development factors, this paper has integrated three analytical dimensions, i.e., economy, population, and land, to put forward a framework for understanding urban growth and shrinkage. Four types of towns have been identified in Dongguan, featuring, respectively, continuous growth, resurgent growth, moderate shrinkage, and continuous shrinkage. Moreover, time trajectory and spatial pattern of growing and shrinking have been investigated to account for the distribution characteristic of urban growth and shrinkage. Then, through probing the shocks of economic crisis, Lewisian turning point, path dependence existence and institutional arrangement, we have analyzed the mechanisms of urban growth and shrinkage amid rapid urbanization in Dongguan. Conclusions and avenues for future research are discussed in the last section.

21世纪以来，广东省在经济和城镇化高速发展的同时也面临着人口的局部收缩，使经济发展的时空格局复杂化。通过实地调研、数理统计、GIS空间分析等定性与定量相结合的方法，分析了广东省人口收缩特征、类型及影响因素，并对东莞莞城进行典例个案分析。结果表明：2000―2010年广东省存在人口局部收缩现象，但总体程度较为轻微且在空间和类型上存在分异；区域发展不平衡、产业结构转型升级、郊区化和行政区划调整等因素导致了广东省人口收缩；莞城的收缩特征主要表现为外来人口持续减少、经济增速持续放缓和城镇功能地位转变3个方面；在主观和客观的推拉力因素作用下，外来人口未来预期发展下降及莞城自身劳动力需求减少共同导致了莞城的人口收缩。

中国快速城镇化过程中已经出现了城市增长与收缩并存的现象，其中收缩型城市中又以资源型城市较为典型。研究城市增长与收缩过程及其影响因素有助于优化资源型城市发展路径以及制定合理的规划策略。本研究以黑龙江省鸡西市、鹤岗市、双鸭山市、七台河市为研究案例，从城市比较研究的思路入手，利用均方差决策法、偏最小二乘法等方法定量化表征4市城市增长与收缩过程并分析其影响因素。结果表明：① 4市并不是处于持续收缩的状态，而是增长与收缩交替进行。② 从城市增长与收缩过程的影响因素方面看，鸡西市主要受居民收入与消费情况影响，鹤岗市主要受产业及投资影响，双鸭山市主要受制造业和外部投资影响，七台河市主要受煤炭产量影响。③ 从差异性角度分析，城市增长与收缩过程以及影响因素的差异主要由替代产业选择差异、城市间竞争、外部性影响所决定。

In the process of rapid urbanization in China, there has been the coexistence of urban growth and shrinkage, among which resource-based cities are more typical. The research on the process and influence mechanism of urban growth and shrinkage is helpful to optimize the development path of resource-based cities and the appropriate planning response. In this paper, we take Jixi City, Hegang City, Shuangyashan City and Qitaihe City in Heilongjiang Province as case cities. From the idea of urban comparative study, the process of urban growth and shrinkage of the four cities is quantitatively characterized and its factors are analyzed by means of mean square decision-making method and partial least square method. The advantage of using mean square decision-making is to avoid errors of subjective evaluation. The partial least square method has gathered the advantages of PCA, correlation analysis and MLR method. The aim to use PLS here is to solve the multicollinearity problem of variables. The results show that: 1) The four cities are not in a state of continuous shrinkage, but the growth and shrinkage alternately. This result is in line with the characteristic that the development of mining cities change with the mining market. 2) From the perspective of factors of urban growth and shrinkage process, Jixi City is mainly affected by residents’ income and consumption, Hegang City is mainly affected by industry and investment, Shuangyashan City is mainly affected by the manufacturing industry and investment, and Qitaihe City is mainly affected by coal production. The four cities have different influential factors mainly in aspects of social development, external investment, and industrial transformation. In addition, each factors has different influencing extend on different cities. Therefore, we will see that cities with similar resource endowment could have different influential factors on urban growth or shrinkage. 3) From the perspective of difference, the process of urban growth and shrinkage and the difference of influence mechanism are mainly determined by the difference of alternative industry selection, the competition between cities, and the external influence and other factors.

城市收缩是一个受经济全球化影响,并具有区域地方特征的世界性经济社会现象,如何构建快速城镇化进程中“中国化”城市收缩研究理论分析框架,为世界城市收缩研究提供中国经验,是新时期中国地理学者、城市规划工作者亟需重点关注和研究的新命题。本文认为城市收缩本质是城市“发展势能”的相对弱化或绝对退化而引起以人口为核心的经济发展要素的再区位和城市功能形态空间重构的响应过程或状态,其是一个综合概念,一个基于人口变化、经济变化、投资消费变化与财政变化等的多维一体过程,据此构建基于“二步诊断法”的城市收缩识别体系及其类型划分标准,同时针对中国最具典型和代表性的东北三省开展城市收缩的实证分析。结果表明：① 东北三省存在明显的城市收缩现象、且呈现出区域化的发展演化趋势;整体可归纳为资源依赖型收缩城市、“虹吸”型收缩城市、综合型收缩城市及区位制约型收缩城市4种模式,其中资源依赖型收缩城市是主体,占据了整个收缩城市的2/3;② 空间上整体呈现出北高南低的空间格局,与经济发展重心不断南移相呼应;③ 指标维度收缩整体遵循“投资消费与经济下行→人口收缩→财政收缩”的内在演化逻辑关联;④ 立足于“二步诊断法”的城市收缩识别体系及其类型划分标准反映出当前基于人口变化学的识别标准的合理性及其局限性——人口变化学能够在很大程度上识别收缩城市,但是对于划分收缩城市类型、揭示收缩城市内在耦合机理具有一定的局限性;⑤ 实证结果表明“二步诊断法”是合理可行的,其可为中国城市收缩的识别、东北振兴政策的制定提供工具支撑与参考依据。

Urban shrinkage is a global socio-economic phenomenon embedded in wave of economic globalization and rooted in "localization". And it has become a new proposition for Chinese geographers and urban planners to build a theoretical analysis framework of "Chinese-style" urban shrinkage research in the process of rapid urbanization and to provide Chinese experience for the study of urban shrinkage globally. In this paper, we think the essence of urban shrinkage is a response progress or status that the city's "development potential" is relative weakening or absolute degradation and caused re-location of the population-centric economic development elements and spatial reconstruction of the urban functional forms. It is a comprehensive concept, a multi-dimensional and integrated process based on the changes in population, economy, investment and consumption, and social security. And we establish the identification system and the classification criteria of urban shrinkage types based on the "two-step diagnosis method", and select the three provinces of Northeast China which are the most representative urban shrinkage regions in China to make an empirical analysis. The results show that: (1) There does exist an obvious urban shrinkage phenomenon, and the evolution trend is going to regionalization in the three provinces. And we classify the whole identified shrinkage cities into four categories: resource-dependent shrinking cities, "siphon" shrinking cities, comprehensive shrinking cities and location-constrained shrinking cities. It can be found that the resource-dependent shrinking cities are the main body, occupying 2/3 of the entire shrinking cities. (2) The spatial pattern formed by the identified shrinkage cities shows the characteristics that the number of the shrinkage cities is large in the north and small in the south, which is echoing the situation that the economic center is continuously moving from north to south. (3) From the indicator dimension, it can be found that urban shrinking wholly follows the internal evolutionary and logical connection of "investment and consumption, economic shrinkage→population shrinkage→social security shrinkage". (4) The urban shrinkage identification system and its type classification criteria based on the "two-step diagnostic method" in this paper reflect the rationality and limitations of the current urban shrinkage identification standard based on population shrinkage, although it can identify shrinking cities to a large extent, and have certain limitations in classifying shrinking city types and revealing the internal coupling mechanism of shrinking cities. (5) The empirical results confirm that the "two-step diagnosis method" of urban shrinkage is reasonable and feasible, which can provide tool support and reference basis for the identification of China's urban shrinkage and the formulation of policies for the revitalization of Northeast China.

基于城镇收缩视角认识东北三省人口流失与经济衰退问题,对深化中国老工业基地转型理论具有重要意义。本文以东北三省县级市（县）为研究对象,利用ArcGIS与空间计量方法,分析增长与收缩城镇的特征与空间关系,研究收缩城镇的职能差异和空间分布格局,探讨区域城镇收缩的形成机制与应对措施。结果显示：2000年以来,东北三省出现了明显的城镇增长与收缩分异现象,42.85%的县（市）发生城镇收缩问题;增长型城镇制造业与服务业日益高级化;收缩型城镇新型产业发展与产业结构升级缓慢,经济竞争力不断弱化;增长与收缩城镇存在密切的空间关联,增长型城镇一方面通过集聚效应不断吸取收缩城镇的人口、资本等生产要素,另一方面通过传统产业的空间转移加重收缩型城镇的经济转型压力;城镇收缩程度由北至南呈高、低起伏状变化,由东至西呈先增强,后减弱的变化态势,并且加工型城镇收缩程度最高,工矿型城镇次之,旅游与口岸型城镇相对较低;城镇收缩的影响因素包括公共服务设施发展滞后、工业发展与市场需求错位、产业结构关联度低、人口结构老龄化和区域中心地的集聚效应5个方面,且作用强度依次增强。依据经济长波理论与地方发展实际,东北三省未来将经历长期的城镇收缩过程。主动适应收缩,通过城镇精明收缩,对人口与经济要素进行优化重组,是东北三省未来发展应做出的战略选择。

Understanding the population loss and economic decline in the three provinces of Northeast China from a perspective of urban shrinkage is of great significance to deepening the transformation theory of China's old industrial bases. The main results can be summarized as follows. Since 2000, obvious differences in urban growth and shrinkage have occurred in Northeast China. Some 42.85% of cities showed an urban shrinkage. The manufacturing and service industries in cities of urban growth (growing cities) are increasingly advanced, while the development of new pattern industries and industrial structure upgrading are slow in cities of urban shrinkage (shrinking cities) and the economic competitiveness of these shrinking cities is weakening. There is a close spatial correlation between growing and shrinking cities. On the one hand, growing cities continuously absorb the production factors such as population and capital of shrinking cities through the agglomeration effect, and on the other hand, they increase the pressure of economic transformation of shrinking cities through the spatial transfer of traditional industries. The shrinkage degree varies from high to low from north to south, and shows a trend of 'first strengthening, then weakening' from east to west. The processing cities have the highest shrinkage degree, followed by industrial and mining cities, and the tourism and port cities have a relatively low shrinkage degree. The factors influencing urban shrinkage include the development lag of public service facilities, the misalignment of industrial development and market demand, the low correlation degree of industrial structure, the aging of population structure, and the agglomeration effect of regional central places, their intensity of action enhancing in turn. According to the economic long wave theory and local circumstances, Northeast China will experience a long-term urban shrinkage in the future. It should be a strategic choice to develop this region to actively adapt to the shrinkage, and optimize and reorganize population and economic factors through smart urban shrinkage.

东北三省养育了全国8%的人口,但是改革开放以来人口不断外迁和流出,东北三省人口流失问题受到广泛关注。基于2000年以来的人口普查和抽样统计资料,系统地测算东北三省人口流失量,从省级和县市2个空间尺度分析东北三省人口流失的演化格局。主要结论包括：① 2000~2015年,东北三省人口出现持续流失,并且不断加剧。② 东北三省并不是中国人口流失最严重的地区。③ 东北三省内部出现较多人口流失的县市,空间范围呈现扩张。④ 经济动能不足是东北三省人口流失的主要原因。⑤ 东北三省人口发展的真正问题不在数量,而在人口质量和结构,包括人才流失严重、人口老龄化加剧、人口空间结构高度极化等。

Northeast China (Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang) occupies 8% of total population in China. However, since the opening up and reforming, frequent population out-migration was on-going in Northeast China. The topic about population loss in Northeast China attracts more and more attentions. According to the census and sampling data after 2000, this research calculates the loss population in Northeast China. Based on the provincial scale and county-level scale data, the spatial pattern evolution of population loss is also figured out. The results are as follows. 1) Northeast China faced a continuous population loss during 2000-2015. And population loss in recent years has aggravated. 2) Northeast China is not the most serious population-losing region in China. 3) Most of counties or cities faced population loss in Northeast China. And population loss area in Northeast China was expanding. 4) The inactive economy development was the key affecting factor for the population loss in Northeast China. 5) The key issues that caused by population loss in Northeast China were population quality and demographic structure, such as brain drain, population aging, and population spatial polarization.This research aims to give some policy implications to the new round development in Northeast China.

基于收缩城市理论,在省域、地州市、县市区和乡镇街道尺度下对湖南人口收缩现象进行定量分析。在全省人口增速放缓和劳动力缩减趋势下,湖南未来的“本地城镇化”和“人口回流”将延续或加剧部分边缘地区的人口收缩。当前各地州市发展规划中的人口和用地增长预期过高,未来人口资源和空间资源分布不相匹配。通过比较人口、城镇化和经济增长数据,总结出三种县市人口收缩类型：“中心袭夺型”、“空心衰减型”和“资源枯竭型”。通过绘制乡镇街道尺度的湖南人口“收缩地图”,发现人口增长在地级、县级中心城市周边集聚,而其他乡镇收缩明显且集聚显著,县级城市是湖南省人口增长/收缩的损益边缘。建议决策者应当开始认识收缩的问题和机遇,建立“紧缩”适宜的空间开发格局,并利用收缩机遇期,实现城镇减量提质。

以人口密度作为量化标准，识别2012—2017年京津冀、长三角、珠三角三大城市群137个县级以上城市的收缩情况，构建多维度指标体系对收缩城市“三生”功能及耦合协调度时空格局演变特征进行分析，并运用多元回归模型探究其影响因素。研究表明：2012—2017年，三大城市群共40个收缩城市，占城市总量的29.20%，以轻度收缩为主，主要包括资源型城市、核心城市周边中小城市和偏远欠发达城市三种类型。研究期间，三大城市群收缩城市“三生”功能时空格局变化差异显著，京津冀收缩城市综合功能下降趋势最为明显。三大城市群收缩城市“三生”功能耦合协调度水平整体偏低，其中京津冀城市群明显高于长三角和珠三角城市群，地域差异显著。研究表明：不同城市群收缩城市耦合协调度影响因素与功能变化显著指标较为相关，三大城市群城市收缩情况与“三生”功能耦合协调度变化趋势联系密切。

This article uses population density as a quantitative standard to identify the shrinkage of 137 cities at or above the county level in the three major urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta in 2012-2017, and construct a multi-dimensional index system to evaluate the shrinking cities The spatial and temporal differences of the production-living-ecological function are analyzed, and the spatial and temporal pattern evolution characteristics of the coordination degree of the shrinking. The research shows that: ① In 2012-2017, there were 40 shrinking cities in the three major urban agglomerations, accounting for 29.20% of the total number of cities, mainly with slight shrinkage, concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, mainly including resource-based cities, small and medium-sized cities around core cities and remote underdeveloped cities.② During the study period, the spatial and temporal patterns of the production-living-ecological function of the shrinking cities of the three major urban agglomerations were significantly different. The comprehensive function of the 21 shrinking cities declined, and the production-living-ecological function of the shrinking cities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration declined most obviously.③The coordination level of the production-living-ecological functional coupling in the shrinking cities of the three major urban agglomerations is generally low, and they are all in low-level coupling and transitional stages. Among them, the coupling coordination degree of the shrinking cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is significantly higher than that of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Urban agglomerations have obvious regional differences; the coupling coordination degree of shrinking cities in the Yangtze River Delta is relatively stable. The shrinking situation of the three major urban agglomerations is closely related to the change trend of the production-living-ecological function and coupling coordination degree. The research results can formulate differentiated production-living-ecological function promotion strategies for the shrinking cities of the three major urban agglomerations, and promote the production-living-ecological function of urban agglomerations.

在县市尺度上对2000—2010年人口收缩区的城乡分异特征进行分析，划分出城增乡减型、城乡双收缩型和城减乡增型等类型，并建立人口收缩城乡分异的理论分析框架，探讨了不同类型的形成机理，主要的发现如下：① 2000—2010年，人口收缩单元占比约为38.6%，城增乡减型单元占据绝对主体，达到34.5%，而“城乡双收缩型”和“城减乡增型”单元占比均较低。② 中部地区人口收缩区城镇人口增长普遍较快，东北地区城乡双收缩的特征较为突出，而东部和西部地区存在较明显的空间分异。③ 城镇化水平和经济发展水平对人口收缩城乡分异特征的影响最为显著，城镇化水平较高而经济发展水平较低的人口收缩区越可能出现城镇人口增长缓慢甚至城乡双收缩。④ 经济发展速度、人口自然增长水平、公共服务等因素对人口收缩城乡分异特征也存在一定的影响。

In recent years, the continuous decline of the total population at the regional scale has become increasingly obvious. Considering that most regions have still been experiencing the rapid urbanization processes, it is necessary to analyze the differences of urban and rural population changes and its underlying driving forces in the population shrinking areas. Based on the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this article has analyzed the difference characteristics of urban-rural population change in the population shrinking counties by identifying several urban-rural differentiation types, and then we have established a theoretical framework to investigate the underlying drivers. The main findings are as follows: 1) 38.6% of the research samples have experienced population shrinkage in the period from 2000 to 2010, but most of them have been characterized by “urban population increasing and rural population declining” (or “urban growth and rural decline” for short), and these units account for 89.5% of all the shrinking samples, and the proportion of urban-rural population both shrinking type (or “urban and rural both decline” for short) has a relatively low percentage. 2) In the central region, the type of “urban growth and rural decline A”, which means a high urban growth rate, occupies the main part, and Northeast China has a high percentage of the type of “urban and rural both decline”, and there are obvious spatial differentiations in the eastern and western China. 3) The factors of urbanization level and economic development level have the most significant impacts on the differentiation of urban-rural population change among the population shrinking areas: the population shrinking areas with higher urbanization level and lower economic development level will be more likely to experience slow urban population growth and even urban population decline. 4) The growth rate of economic development, the level of natural population growth, and the quality of public services also have certain impacts on the differentiation of urban-rural population change among the population shrinking areas. Based on these findings, we argue that the perspective of urban-rural differentiation can deepen understanding of population shrinkage in China, and it can also contribute to the relevant theories of population shrinkage in a developing context.

中国的城市界定与行政区划紧密关联。根据2010年人口普查数据,系统分析不同尺度城市行政地域与城市实体地域的界定及其空间差异。主要结论：① 按照直辖市或地级市、设区的市和不设区的市、设街道的市和不设街道的市的层级,城市行政地域范围依次收缩,但是都大于城市实体地域范围。按照实体地域界定,2010年中国城市人口仅占30.18%。② 城市实体地域更能客观地反映城市位序规模的分布状态,而按照城市行政地域会导致规模或排序偏差。③ 未来在行政区划调整时,着重考虑撤县设市、增设地级市、确立乡级行政区划调整标准等,在建立城市实体地域时,可从独立市辖区、县城、特大镇等方面优化,并加强统计信息公开。

The definition of city is connected to administrative division system in China. It is important to understand the spatial difference between city administrative area and city physical area. According to the population census data in 2010, we distinguished city definitions in multiple administrative levels, including municipality cities, prefectural cities, cities with districts, cities without districts, cities with sub-districts and cities without sub-districts. In addition, we compared the spatial areas between city administrative cities and physical cities area and put forward some integration strategies. The main results are listed as follows. (1) Among various administrative cities, municipality cities and prefectural cities were larger. The following ones were cities with districts and cities without districts. The areas of cities with sub-districts and cities without sub-districts were relatively small. City physical area reflected the real landscape of a city, which was smaller than all kinds of city administrative areas. It only covered 0.32% of the whole area in the mainland of China but had 30.18% of Chinese population in 2010. (2) To classify city scale hierarchies, the population in city physical area was a better measure than the population in city administrative area. According to the population in the physical area, Shanghai is the largest city in China in 2010. (3) China's city physical area definition was also affected by city administrative definition. We suggested China's city administrative division adjustment should concerns more on county-to-city conversion and new prefectural-city establishment. It is better to regard the population city physical area as a reference index for administrative division adjustment. For the definition of the city physical area, independent municipal district, county seat and large towns were suggested as the independent city physical area. Besides, we recommended to open the statistical data related to city physical area. We do hope our research can be beneficial for policy implications for China's administrative adjustment and city physical area studies.

收缩型城市是中国城镇化、空间规划与城市治理的全新命题。论文在简要梳理收缩型城市相关文献的基础上总结了当前收缩型城市研究在中国的认知误区。因人口统计口径不一致、划分标准不可比、数量属性与地域空间脱节等原因给科学清晰的识别收缩型城市提出了挑战。在周一星、史育龙（1995）建议的基础上,论文提出了基于实体地域对比与行政地域互验来分析全国城市人口的增减变化及收缩型城市的甄别框架,测算表明：全国有114个建制市2010年的“城人口”规模低于2000年“市人口”规模,但由于2000年“市人口”的偏大统计以及2010年“城人口”存在的“个别水分”,这些城市也未必就全是“收缩型城市”;在剔除乡村人口较高的“城市型政区”后,全国2000年和2010年人口处于净流出状态的建制市分别为56个和75个。论文认为：中国应尽快建立城市实体地域概念,推进城市化区域协同统计制度;要构建“时空对齐”的全国常住人口地理信息系统数据库并综合考虑各地行政区划建制差异,持续推进城乡人口的精准划分。

While China′s urbanization has been characterized by 'growth-oriented' development models, the recent literature has highlighted the emergence of urban shrinkage in China, i.e., cities and regions that endure sustained population losses. This is especially the case for some resource-based cities in Northeast and North China, which have been losing their population and suffering from stagnant and even negative local GDP growth. Shrinking cities is a new phenomenon for research in the areas of population-resources-environments, spatial planning and urban governance in China. Based on a brief review of related literature, this paper summarizes some misunderstandings in the research of shrinking cities in China. It is a challenge to identify shrinking cities scientifically because of different demographies, different classification standards and disconnection between attributes data and geographic units. Extending from the suggestion from Zhou and Shi (1995), this paper, based on urban physical areas comparison and urban administrative areas test, analyzes the changes of China′s urban population and proposes a framework to identify the shrinking cities. The results show that there are 114 designated cities, in which the population size of the "Chengrenkou" (residential population in the built-up area) in 2010 was smaller than that of the "Shirenkou" (residential population in the administrative area) in 2000. However, due to a larger "Shirenkou" size in 2000 in statistics than in actual situation, and also several inflated figures of "Chengrenkou" in 2010, the exact number of "shrinking cities" is less than 114. After excluding "urban administrative areas" with a larger rural population, 56 cities and 75 cities were in net outflow in 2000 and 2010, respectively. The results are highly policy-relevant, therefore we should adjust future policies regarding urban shrinkage management. Finally, this paper argues that China should establish the concept of urban physical areas and promote the regional collaborative statistical system of urbanization. And it is also necessary to build a "spatio-temporal aligned" geographic information system database of China's resident population and take the regional differences in the administrative divisions into account in order to continuously promote the accurate division of urban and rural population.

收缩城市是快速城市化过程中不可忽视的一类城市,按照城市人口变化格局,开展收缩城市分类研究,是发现城市人口“空洞”及变化特征的重要一环。国际上将收缩城市主要分为穿孔型、圈饼型和边缘型,中国的收缩城市究竟包括哪些类型?尚缺少研究证实。本文以中国实体城市为分析单位,利用百度慧眼2016年11月─2018年11月200 m格网的常住人口数据,发现常住人口减少的实体城市共1506座,占实体城市总量（3022座）的49.8%。选取人口较为密集且在研究时段内出现严重收缩现象的126座收缩城市为研究样本,探讨中国收缩城市分类问题。分析表明：126座收缩城市样本多分布在秦岭淮河一线以北地区,包括穿孔型、全局型、局部型、圈饼型、边缘型等5种类型。其中,穿孔型收缩城市最多,共47座（37.3%）,为中国收缩城市的主导类型,主要分布于黑龙江、内蒙古、甘肃;全局型收缩城市有33座（26.2%）,主要分布于甘肃、陕西;局部型收缩城市有25座（19.8%）,主要分布在黑龙江、内蒙古;圈饼型收缩城市有18座（14.3%）,主要分布在内蒙古;边缘型收缩城市有3座。“重速度、轻质量”的前半程城镇化,以“增长”为主导的城市规划执念,资源枯竭或经济转型导致传统工业企业衰落解体,政府主动调整下的产业转移等是产生穿孔型收缩城市的主因。研究为政府精细调整城市发展重心、优化土地利用结构、提高城市宜居性、开展收缩语境下的城市规划与设计,提供了科学依据。

In the context of rapid urbanization, shrinking cities cannot be ignored. The classification of shrinking cities according to the patterns of urban population changes is the key to reveal the "hollow" and changing characteristics of the population. Researchers classified the shrinking cities in Western developed countries as "perforated", "doughnut" and "peripheral" types. However, there is a lack of evidence showing the types of shrinking cities in China. This paper takes the redefined physical cities in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) as the study area, and employs Baidu Huiyan's 200 m × 200 m grid cell permanent population data from November 2016 to November 2018 to identify different types of shrinking cities in the country. Our results show that 1506 physical cities have experienced a population reduction between 2016 and 2018, accounting for 49.8% of the total number of physical cities (3022). Furthermore, in order to accurately identify the types of shrinking cities, 126 densely populated and severely shrinking cities during the study period were selected as the research samples, mainly located to north of the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River of China. Our analysis shows that the shrinking types of the sample cities can be classified into five categories: "perforated", "complete", "local", "doughnut", and "peripheral". The number of cities with perforated shrinkage is the largest, which numbered 47 (37.3% of the sample cities), most of which are found in Heilongjiang Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Gansu Province. Complete shrinkage ranks the second, including 33 cities, which accounts for 26.2% of the samples, and mainly distributed in Gansu and Shaanxi provinces. The numbers of shrinking cities with local, doughnut and peripheral types are 25, 18 and 3, respectively. These cities are mainly distributed in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. This is because the governments paid more attention to the development speed over quality during the first half of China's urbanization process, and adopted a growth-oriented urban planning strategy. Traditional industries declined due to resource depletion or economic transformation, and the transfer of industries under active government adjustment, all of which contribute to the emergence of perforated shrinkage. This study could provide scientific evidence for micro management of urban development, optimization of land use pattern, improvement of urban livability, and conduct of urban planning and design in the context of urban shrinkage.

This study exposes and maps a hitherto little‐known dimension of China's urban geography – that of shrinkage, directly affecting one in 10 of its cities. Urban shrinkage is revealed to be a growing concern for the most populous country on earth, with the absolute number of shrinking cities rising by 71% from 164 in the 1990s to 281 in the 2000s. By developing its own definition of the city as an urban area (UA) in the Chinese political‐administrative context, this paper builds a morphologic taxonomy of China's shrinking cities. This reveals the overall net population loss across Chinese shrinking cities more than doubling since 1990, reaching 7.3 million inhabitants in 2010. Sixty‐eight Chinese UAs, mostly in north‐eastern China, are found to have been shrinking continuously since 1990. Despite the multifaceted and entangled make‐up of urban shrinkage, the paper identifies four distinct causes of this geographical phenomenon in China: (1) state‐incubated reindustrialisation and economic restructuring, impacting upon 63% of all shrinking UAs; (2) the country's new economic geography, with the underlying centripetal forces of agglomeration pushing around 34% of all shrinking cities towards marginalisation; (3) state‐propelled demographic change, leading to natural population decline in 26% of Chinese shrinking cities; and (4) state‐sponsored mega‐shrinkage, responsible for urban population loss in almost 20% of all the cases. This study further provides a theoretically informed reflection on the peculiarity of shrinkage in China and its public policy implications.

本文总结了我国在城市的行政地域与景观地域严重背离的情况下，继续使用行政地域区分城乡的种种弊端，认为解决这一问题的关键在于建立适合中国特点又具有国际可比性的城市实体地域概念，以此作为城乡划分及统计的地域基础，文章提出以下限人口规模、非农化水平和人口密度三个指标定义城市实体地域，并在大量实证研究的基础上，通过对中国城市空间形态的分类，提出了一套完整的划分实体地域的方法和工作程序。

The new standard of city-size classification in China that divides all cities into five categories and seven subcategories, which was published in 2014, has gained popular attention. However,there have been various results of city-size classification due to different interpretations of the new standard. This article compares the new standard with the old standard and analyzes the city-size hierarchy of China in 2010 to evaluate the applicability and limitations of the new standard. The results show that the new standard has improved significantly over the old standard by changing the definition of population statistics, definition of urban space statistics, and the classification standard. Comparing the classification results based on the new and the old standards as well as other methods, the number of megacities and big cities reduced significantly while the number of small cities increased. The new result shows a clear pyramid structure of city sizes, which conforms to the central place theory and the rank-size rule. Thus, the new standard provides better guidelines to city management. According to the 6th census data in 2010, China has 12 megacities, 58 big cities, 93 medium-size cities, and 493 small cities. The majority of the higher rank cities are located in national-level urban agglomerations in southeastern China. However, the new standard also has some limitations. Urban resident population statistics that is a key in the new standard are often unavailable in non-census years, and the classification result is affected by adjustments of urban administrative boundaries. Further research on urban area identification and data sharing is urgently needed.

行政区划变更与社会经济发展密切相关,也影响着社会经济的健康发展。主要分析了1978年以来35年间中国县级以上各类型行政区的数量变化,根据变化特征和规律划分出四个发展阶段,阐述了各个阶段行政区划空间格局的发展变化,总结了中国行政区划演变的五种主要模式：建制变更、行政区拆分、行政区合并、建制升格以及新设立行政区。行政区划格局的演变受多种因素的影响,城镇化进程、中心城市的空间拓展、人口的集聚与增长、交通和通讯条件的改善以及政策因素都是行政区划格局演变的重要驱动力。在新型城镇化背景下,应该加强中国行政区划时空格局演变和驱动力分析,以期为中国未来的行政区划调整和城镇化的健康发展提供一些指导与借鉴。

The changes of administrative divisions are closely related to social and economic development, and affect the health of the social and economy development. This thesis mainly analyzes the variation in value of various kinds of administrative divisions which are above the county level during the last 35 years (1978-2013). It is divided into four stages according to the varying characteristics and pattern which are 1978-1982, 1982-1996, 1997-2003 and 2004-2013.The charts and diagrams illustrated the evolution of temporal-spatial patterns of each stage. The number and proportion of counties have been declining. During 1978-1996, the number of county-level cities had been rising and was mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal region. Thus, the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and other city groups formed. The number and proportion of municipal districts are growing steadily. The municipal districts are concentrated in the eastern and northeastern regions. Since 2003, the spatial distribution pattern of administrative divisions is basically stable. Now, municipal districts and county-level cities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and northeastern regions, but counties are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions.This paper summarizes the five main modes of the administrative divisions of China which are the change of the organizational system, the division of the administrative districts, the combination of the administrative districts, the upgrade of the organizational system and the establishment of the administrative districts.The pattern of evolution of administrative divisions is affected by many factors. This thesis draws the conclusion that the important driving forces include the progress of urbanization, spatial expansion of the central cities, agglomeration and growth of population, the improvement of the transportation and communication conditions and the government policies. Under the new urbanization background, this paper aims to provide some guidance and references for the future adjustment of the administrative districts in China and healthy development of urbanization through strengthening the study on the evolution and driving force of the temporal-spatial pattern in China's administrative districts.