新创企业的时空分异与区位选择——基于中国汽车制造业的实证研究

doi:10.11821/dlyj020200653

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新创企业区位选择不仅是企业重要的决策活动,也深刻影响中国制造业地理空间格局演变。在全球化、市场化、分权化背景下,基于“中国工业企业数据库（1998—2012）”和“中国城市统计年鉴（1999—2013）”中新创企业及城市属性数据,采用随机效应面板Tobit模型分析中国汽车制造业新创企业的时空分异与区位选择。研究发现：① 1998—2012年,中国汽车新创企业活跃地区由东部沿海地区向中西部地区转移,尤其是2010—2012年,新创企业呈现向中西部大规模扩散趋势,西部成渝地区逐渐成为新热点区域。② 从新创企业区位选择时空综合机制来看,全球化影响不显著,而市场化和分权化均存在显著影响,其中劳动力、集聚经济、市场潜力与区位商等因素能促使新创企业成立,而国有企业占比则会阻碍新创企业成立。③ 在时间特征差异上,全球化表现不显著,分权化则始终保持对新创企业的显著影响。市场化的劳动力因素影响作用变化说明新创企业区位选择正逐渐从关注劳动力成本转向于关注劳动力质量,而集聚经济和市场潜力在多样化和城市化经济的冲击下作用减弱。④ 在空间特征差异上,全球化的出口因素在东部地区影响显著,但在中西部地区表现不明显,市场化中劳动力因素和市场潜力在东部地区影响不显著,而在中西部地区劳动力因素则显著为正,除此之外,外商直接投资、集聚经济、区位商和国有企业占比对不同区域新创企业区位选择影响大体相同。在经济高质量发展情景下,揭示新创企业时空分异及区位选择机制,强调“区位机会窗口”对某些地区实现企业区位空间调整及其把握企业与政府关系的重要性,不仅能丰富演化经济地理学视角下的企业区位选择的研究,还能更好地理解中国典型区域正在发生的经济转型和空间重构。

关键词: 汽车新创企业, 时空分异, 区位选择, Tobit模型

Abstract:

Location choice is not only a key decision-making for an individual enterprise, but will also exert profound impacts on the spatial pattern of China's manufacturing industry. Under the backdrop of globalization, marketization and decentralization, this study analyzed the spatial heterogeneity in location choice mechanisms of China's automobile manufacturing new entrants, by using China industrial enterprise database (1998-2012) and Tobit econometric model for the random effect. Four key conclusions were obtained. First, China's automobile manufacturing new firms were increasingly attracted to the central and western regions from the eastern coastal areas during 1998-2012. In particular, the Chengdu-Chongqing area experienced large increases in the number of new automobile firms during the study period. Second, in terms of the spatiotemporal location choice mechanisms for new entrants, the impact of globalization was no longer statistically significant, whilst marketization and decentralization forces exerted significant impacts. More specifically, places with better regional labor conditions, higher levels of agglomeration economy, and larger market potentials were associated with higher chances of being selected as destinations for new firms. In contrast, the concentration of state-owned enterprises in a place would hinder the establishment of new firms. Third, we found significant temporal variabilities in how and, the extent to which, different forces affected the location choice of new firms. For instance, decentralization has had significant impacts on the location choices of new firms, the impacts of agglomeration economy and market potential were decreasing with time. In addition, there was a clear shift from labor cost to labor quality in how local labor conditions affect new firms' location choices. Finally, location choice mechanisms for new entrants also varied across regions. The labor conditions and market potential have become much more important in the central and western regions than in the eastern region. The labor conditions and market potential did not have significant impacts in the eastern region, but they played a significant role in the central and western regions. By contrast, FDI, agglomeration economy, and government subsidy policies exerted similar impacts on the location choice of new firms across regions. Through uncovering the spatiotemporal location choice mechanisms for new entrants, this paper highlights the importance of “location opportunity window” theory in understanding the spatial distribution and adjustment of China's industries and the complex relationships between enterprises and local governments, and helps with regional high-quality economic development. By doing so, it enriches the location choice theories of enterprises from the evolutionary economic geography perspective and promotes the understanding of China's economic transformation and spatial reconstruction.

Key words: new automobile firm, spatiotemporal heterogeneity, location choices, Tobit model

陈肖飞, 韩腾腾, 栾俊婉, 郭建峰, 苗长虹. 新创企业的时空分异与区位选择——基于中国汽车制造业的实证研究[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(6): 1749-1767.

CHEN Xiaofei, HAN Tengteng, LUAN Junwan, GUO Jianfeng, MIAO Changhong. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the locational choices of new firms in China: A case study of the automobile manufacturing industry[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(6): 1749-1767.

图/表 9

表1

变量名称与预期符号"

考察维度	变量名称		预期符号
全球化	出口占比	（ExportShare_i,t-1)	+
全球化	外商直接投资额	（FDI_i_,_t_-1)	+
市场化	劳动力条件	(LCost_i_,_t_-1 $×$ LQuality_i_,_t_-1)	不确定
	集聚经济	(Marshall_i_,_t_-1)	+
	市场潜力	(Perincome_i_,_t_-1)	+
分权化	国企占比	(StateFirmShare_i_,_t_-1)	-
分权化	区位商	(LQ_i_,_t_-1)	+
控制变量	企业规模	(SmallFirmShare_i_,_t_-1)	+
控制变量	预期利润	(ProfitRate_i_,_t_-1)	+

表1

表2

表3

图1

图2

图3

表4

表5

表6

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变量名称	单位	最大值	最小值	平均值	标准差
出口占比	%	99.77	0	4.45	10.88
外商直接投资	万元	9008262.11	0	239416.45	660568.61
劳动力因素	千元/人	157904.68	0	2933.63	7533.49
集聚经济	人/km²	72.91	0	0.92	2.94
市场潜力	元	42944	1176	11137	6205.69
国企占比	%	100	0	15.95	28.31
区位商	-	1	0	0.22	0.41
企业规模	-	100	0	76.33	42.49
预期利润	%	80.21	-619.23	0.19	0.24

变量名称	出口占比	外商直接投资	劳动力因素	集聚经济	市场潜力	国企占比	区位商	预期利润	企业规模
出口占比	1
外商直接投资	0.306^***	1
劳动力因素	0.154^***	0.539^***	1
集聚经济	0.351^***	0.301^***	0.325^***	1
市场潜力	0.158^***	0.514^***	0.402^***	0.243^***	1
国企占比	-0.128^**	-0.035^***	-0.254^***	-0.084^***	-0.086^***	1
区位商	0.501^***	0.301^***	0.351^***	0.415^***	0.403^***	0.051^***	1
预期利润	0.105^***	0.081^***	0.131^***	0.201^*	0.072^***	0.314^***	0.104^***	1
企业规模	0.426^***	0.329^***	0.318^***	0.106^***	0.204^***	0.318^***	0.426^***	0.207^***	1

变量	模型1
	全球化	市场化	分权化	全部要素
出口占比	0.10424^** (0.017)	-	-	0.75775 (0.165)
外商直接投资	0.28230^*** (0.000)	-	-	0.00676 (0.903)
劳动力因素	-	0.13286^*** (0.000)	-	0.06382^** (0.048)
集聚经济	-	0.28523^*** (0.000)	-	0.11565^** (0.081)
市场潜力	-	0.35165^*** (0.000)	-	0.15601^*** (0.001)
国有企业占比	-	-	-0.20766^*** (0.000)	-0.19106^*** (0.000)
区位商	-	-	0.10741^*** (0.000)	0.06595^*** (0.000)
企业规模	-	-	-	0.31348^*** (0.000)
预期利润	-	-	-	0.01527^* (0.074)
Cons	-0.21405^*** (0.000)	-0.29897^*** (0.000)	-0.18904^*** (0.000)	-0.46987^*** (0.000)
全部观察值数	4545	4545	4545	4545
城市数量	303	303	303	303

变量	模型2				模型3				模型4
	1998—2004年				2005—2009年				2010—2012年
	全球化	市场化	分权化	全部要素	全球化	市场化	分权化	全部要素	全球化	市场化	分权化	全部要素
出口占比	0.15082^* (0.063)	-	-	0.08837 (0.246)	0.03817 (0.527)	-	-	0.09230 (0.111)	0.05715 (0.370)	-	-	0.05658^** (0.511)
外商直接投资	0.35423^*** (0.000)	-	-	0.08225 (0.350)	0.35597^*** (0.000)	-	-	-0.06512 (0.454)	0.23791^*** (0.000)	-	-	0.07814 (0.322)
劳动力因素	-	0.12958^* (0.075)	-	-0.03974^* (0.061)	-	0.13294^*** (0.001)	-	0.09744^** (0.011)	-	0.06683 (0.221)	-	0.00366 (0.948)
集聚经济	-	0.53264^*** (0.000)	-	0.12916^** (0.022)	-	0.12988^* (0.067)	-	0.233346^** (0.034)	-	0.8788 (0.372)	-	0.04761^* (0.064)
市场潜力	-	0.22609^** (0.038)	-	0.13148^* (0.092)	-	0.39410^*** (0.000)	-	0.33095^*** (0.000)	-	0.19523^*** (0.002)	-	0.9406 (0.186)
国有企业占比	-	-	-0.15910^*** (0.000)	-0.20852^*** (0.000)	-	-	-0.27533^*** (0.000)	-0.29571^*** (0.000)	-	-	-0.03016^*** (0.000)	-0.12239^** (0.031)
区位商	-	-	0.18698^*** (0.000)	0.09250^*** (0.000)	-	-	0.10919^*** (0.000)	0.06764^*** (0.000)	-	-	0.10721^*** (0.000)	0.05978^*** (0.005)
企业规模	-	-	-	0.41853^*** (0.000)	-	-	-	0.25498^*** (0.000)	-	-	-	0.28898^*** (0.000)
预期利润	-	-	-	0.66053^*** (0.002)	-	-	-	0.06238^** (0.011)	-	-	-	0.02285^* (0.100)
Cons	-0.32099^*** (0.000)	-0.36649^*** (0.000)	-0.28339^*** (0.000)	-1.21288^*** (0.000)	-0.13153^*** (0.000)	-0.22787^*** (0.000)	-0.12137^*** (0.000)	-0.44691^*** (0.000)	-0.15636^*** (0.000)	-0.20973^*** (0.000)	-0.16164^*** (0.000)	-0.41989^*** (0.000)
全部观察值数	2121	2121	2121	2121	1515	1515	1515	1515	909	909	909	909
城市数量	303	303	303	303	303	303	303	303	303	303	303	303

变量	模型5				模型6				模型7
	东部地区				中部地区				西部地区
	全球化	市场化	分权化	全部要素	全球化	市场化	分权化	全部要素	全球化	市场化	分权化	全部要素
出口占比	0.02000 (0.493)	-	-	0.04611^** (0.030)	0.18902^* (0.051)	-	-	0.02987 (0.740)	-0.36446 (0.628)	-	-	0.57665 (0.219)
外商直接投资	0.05349^* (0.100)	-	-	0.01541 (0.675)	1.52712^*** (0.000)	-	-	0.19427 (0.476)	0.40193 (0.424)	-	-	0.08393 (0.837)
劳动力因素	-	0.02254 (0.426)	-	0.00239 (0.933)	-	0.12731^** (0.030)	-	0.05447^** (0.050)	-	0.52090^*** (0.003)	-	0.30923^* (0.067)
集聚经济	-	0.07311^* (0.100)	-	0.03254^** (0.049)	-	0.53193^*** (0.000)	-	0.26461^* (0.057)	-	1070422^*** (0.007)	-	0.97833^* (0.071)
市场潜力	-	0.07625^** (0.018)	-	0.01802 (0.602)	-	0.69917^*** (0.000)	-	0.33941^*** (0.005)	-	0.88137^*** (0.000)	-	0.59674^** (0.017)
国有企业占比	-	-	-0.13241^*** (0.000)	-0.11614^*** (0.000)	-	-	-0.28296^*** (0.000)	-0.21878^* (0.000)	-	-	-0.19998^** (0.039)	-0.28619^*** (0.003)
区位商	-	-	0.3745^*** (0.003)	0.01749^* (0.065)	-	-	0.13910^*** (0.000)	0.09951^*** (0.000)	-	-	0.24747^*** (0.001)	0.15120^** (0.018)
企业规模	-	-	-	0.19469^*** (0.000)	-	-	-	0.34649^*** (0.000)	-	-	-	0.53475^*** (0.000)
预期利润	-	-	-	0.05119^*** (0.010)	-	-	-	0.01579 (0.686)	-	-	-	0.12795^* (0.099)
Cons	-0.04935^*** (0.000)	-0.07982^*** (0.000)	-0.04025^*** (0.000)	-0.16703^*** (0.000)	-0.23863^*** (0.000)	-0.35730^*** (0.000)	-0.19763^*** (0.000)	-0.57290^*** (0.000)	-0.50550^*** (0.000)	-0.90955^*** (0.000)	-0.72215^*** (0.000)	-1.50441^*** (0.000)
全部观察值数	1515	1515	1515	1515	1605	1605	1605	1605	1425	1425	1425	1425
城市数量	101	101	101	101	107	107	107	107	95	95	95	95