京津冀文化艺术产业空间格局演变及其影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlyj020200663

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2007—2017年文化艺术企业数据,采用核密度估计和空间自相关检验分析京津冀县域尺度的文化艺术产业的空间格局演变,并运用岭回归和地理加权回归对其影响因素效应及空间分异性进行探索,最后讨论其影响机制。研究发现：① 京津冀文化艺术产业空间集聚范围不断扩大,河北与京津的断崖式差距正在逐步缩减,“两核一轴带”格局逐渐形成;② 京津冀文化艺术产业具有显著的空间依赖性,全局依赖性有所减弱但局部依赖性逐渐增强;H-H型集聚主要在京津分布蔓延,京津之间的廊坊市显现出L-H型集聚;L-L型集聚主要位于河北各地市的边缘地带,个别区县呈现H-L型孤岛集聚形态;③ 市场需求、关联产业及人才技术是影响当前京津冀文化艺术产业发展的主要因素,文化资源影响稳定而政策环境效应空间分异性大,未来应结合地区发展空间关联性和影响因素空间分异性针对性地实现京津冀文化艺术产业协同发展。

关键词: 文化艺术产业, 空间格局, 影响因素, 岭回归, 地理加权回归, 京津冀

Abstract:

Nowadays the cultural industry has become a new engine for regional transformation and upgrading. Accordingly, promoting the coordinated development of the cultural industry is an important part in the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which is regarded as a national strategy of China. Based on the data of cultural and artistic firms from 2007 to 2017, this paper analyzed the spatial pattern evolution of cultural and artistic industries in this region at the county scale by using kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation test. In addition, this paper explored the influencing factors and the spatial differentiation of their effects, combining ridge regression model with geographically weighted regression model. Finally, the mechanism of the spatial pattern was discussed. The results showed that: (1) The spatial agglomeration scope of the cultural and artistic industries continued to expand in the study area, roughly presenting agglomeration patterns as “Beijing single core” - “Beijing large core and Tianjin small core” - “Beijing-Tianjin dual core”. Meanwhile, the huge gap between Hebei and Being-Tianjin was gradually shrinking, and the Beijing-Baoding-Shijiazhuang industry belt began to take shape, finally exhibited a pattern of “two cores and one belt”. (2) The cultural and artistic industries in the region had significant spatial dependence, and the global dependence had continuously weakened, however, the local dependence had gradually increased. Specifically speaking, H-H agglomeration mainly spread in Beijing and Tianjin, and L-H agglomeration appeared between Beijing and Tianjin. L-L agglomeration was mainly observed in the fringe area of cities in Hebei, and individual counties presented the H-L agglomeration in an island form. (3) Market demand, related industries, talent and technology were the main factors affecting the current development of cultural and artistic industries. Besides, cultural resource had stable effects, and the effects of policy environmental factor had large spatial differentiation. In the future, targeted policies making should take both spatial dependence of region development and spatial differentiation of influencing factors into consideration so as to achieve the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cultural and artistic industries.

Key words: cultural and artistic industry, spatial pattern, influencing factor, ridge regression, geographically weighted regression, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

肖晔, 赵林, 乔路明, 吴殿廷. 京津冀文化艺术产业空间格局演变及其影响因素[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(6): 1768-1784.

XIAO Ye, ZHAO Lin, QIAO Luming, WU Dianting. The spatial pattern evolution and influencing factors of cultural and artistic industries in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(6): 1768-1784.

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时间	Moran's I	P-value	Z-score
2007年	0.539	0.001	16.675
2012年	0.518	0.001	15.606
2017年	0.449	0.001	13.146

类别	影响因素	具体指标	数据来源
要素禀赋	文化资源	非物质文化遗产得分X₁	北京和天津市政府文件、河北非物质文化遗产保护网
	文化资源	A级景区得分X₂	地方文化和旅游局/厅官网
	人力资本	高等学校数量X₃	教育部官网
	技术水平	专利授权量X₄	佰腾网及地方统计年鉴
市场需求	消费能力	社会消费品零售总额X₅	地方统计年鉴
关联产业	综合辅助	第三产业产值X₆	同上
政策环境	政府干预	一般公共预算支出X₇	同上
政策环境	社会投入	固定资产投资X₈	同上

影响指标	容差	VIF
非物质文化遗产得分X₁	0.412	2.425
A级景区得分X₂	0.486	2.056
高等学校数量X₃	0.038	26.210
专利授权量X₄	0.229	4.371
社会消费品零售总额X₅	0.087	11.477
第三产业产值X₆	0.067	14.982
一般公共预算支出X₇	0.075	13.350
固定资产投资X₈	0.176	5.673

影响指标	回归系数	标准误	t值	Sig.
非物质文化遗产得分X₁	0.003	0.021	0.121	0.904
A级景区得分X₂	0.083	0.022	3.802	0.000
高等学校数量X₃	0.143	0.021	6.862	0.000
专利授权量X₄	0.071	0.017	4.099	0.000
社会消费品零售总额X₅	0.329	0.017	19.486	0.000
第三产业产值X₆	0.183	0.014	12.937	0.000
一般公共预算支出X₇	0.070	0.016	4.259	0.000
固定资产投资X₈	0.050	0.020	2.554	0.011

影响指标	F₁	F₂	F₃
A级景区得分X₂	0.319	0.148	0.933
高等学校数量X₃	0.843	0.203	0.194
专利授权量X₄	0.895	0.280	0.238
社会消费品零售总额X₅	0.831	0.376	0.295
第三产业产值X₆	0.864	0.322	0.270
一般公共预算支出X₇	0.531	0.745	0.336
固定资产投资X₈	0.243	0.951	0.066