EN中文

地理研究 >

2025 , Vol. 44 >Issue 10: 2841 - 2861

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj020241059

老年人行为与养老服务

基于TERGM的城市群养老服务一体化网络生成机制研究

  • 张长淦 , 1 ,
  • 马远军 1 ,
  • 孙婧雯 , 1 ,
  • 方晨浩 2, 3
展开
  • 1.浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院，金华 321000
  • 2.安徽大学与合肥综合性国家科学中心人工智能研究院联合实验室，合肥 230039
  • 3.合肥综合性国家科学中心人工智能研究院，合肥 230039
孙婧雯（1995-），女，山东禹城人，博士，讲师，主要研究方向为乡村地理与城乡发展。E-mail:

张长淦（2000-），男，江西吉安人，博士研究生，主要研究方向为人口地理。E-mail:

收稿日期: 2024-09-29

  录用日期: 2025-03-10

  网络出版日期: 2025-10-09

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42401247)

教育部人文社会科学研究项目(24YJCZH262)

浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划（新苗人才计划）项目(2023R404061)

收起

Research on the generation mechanism of integrated networks for elderly care services in urban agglomerations based on TERGM

  • ZHANG Changgan , 1 ,
  • MA Yuanjun 1 ,
  • SUN Jingwen , 1 ,
  • FANG Chenhao 2, 3
Expand
  • 1. College of Geography and Environment Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321000, China
  • 2. AHU-IAI AI Joint Laboratory, Anhui University, Hefei 230039,China
  • 3. Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Hefei Comprehensive National Science Center, Hefei 230039, China

Received date: 2024-09-29

  Accepted date: 2025-03-10

  Online published: 2025-10-09

Fold

摘要

城市养老服务供给缺位加剧了老龄化危机，异地养老是推动区域养老服务一体化的关键手段和自发选择。当前对区域养老服务一体化的研究仍停留在政策层面，本文以中国长三角、京津冀、成渝三大城市群为研究区域，借助威尔逊引力模型与复杂网络分析方法，系统分析了2010至2020年间区域养老服务一体化的时空格局，并利用时序指数随机图模型探讨了其生成机制。结果表明：① 区域一体化进程推动养老流网络规模扩大与密度提升，长三角养老流网络存在趋于耦合的结构特征，具备高水平一体化发展态势，京津冀稍低，成渝发展相对滞后但增长迅速。② 三大城市群网络趋异演化，长三角多核杂化扩张，京津冀首位聚敛，成渝由双核转向轴辐结构，共同表现出规模效应强化和空间阻尼弱化的连接趋势。③ 养老流生成受多重因素驱动，经济成本决定养老资源的优化配置，个人需求及心理偏好是养老网络生成的直接驱动力，文化认同和互惠节律是网络发展的关键因素。研究表明，区域一体化背景下异地养老模式能够推动城市群养老资源共享和产业协同，有效调控跨城市养老服务的供给能力与效率，为构建全国养老服务“一盘棋”奠定区域基础。

关键词： 异地养老; 区域一体化; 时序指数随机图模型; 流生成; 威尔逊引力模型

本文引用格式

张长淦 , 马远军 , 孙婧雯 , 方晨浩 . 基于TERGM的城市群养老服务一体化网络生成机制研究[J]. 地理研究, 2025 , 44(10) : 2841 -2861 . DOI: 10.11821/dlyj020241059

Abstract

The escalating aging crisis has underscored deficiencies in urban elder care services. Off-site elder care has emerged as a pivotal solution and a natural choice for enhancing the integration of regional elder care services. This study examines the integration of such services within three major urban agglomerations in China-the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), and Chengdu-Chongqing (CCH)-employing the Wilson Gravity Model and complex network analysis methods to systematically analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of regional integration from 2010 to 2020. Additionally, it utilizes the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model to investigate underlying influence mechanisms. The findings reveal that: (1) Regional integration processes have expanded the scale and density of off-site elder care networks, with the YRD exhibiting coupling characteristics indicative of advanced integration levels, followed by BTH, while CCH, though rapidly developing, remains relatively behind. (2) The networks within these city clusters are evolving distinctively; the YRD expands through multiple core, BTH consolidates primarily in core areas, and CCH transitions from a dual-core to an axial-spoke configuration. This evolution signifies an intensification of the scale effect and a reduction in spatial attenuation. (3) The generation of off-site elder care flows is influenced by multiple factors, where locally adapted psychological preferences and intersecting economic variables serve as central mechanisms in off-site elder care network formation, with cultural assimilation and reciprocal rhythms playing crucial roles in network evolution. The study concludes that regional off-site elder care integration policies have significantly enhanced resource sharing and industrial collaboration across urban agglomerations, thereby improving the supply and efficiency of cross-city elder care and contributing significantly to the national strategy for elder care.

Key words： off-site elderly care; regional integration; Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model; flow generation; Wilson Gravity Model

致谢：诚挚感谢两位匿名审稿专家富有见地的细致审查，审稿专家对本文理论逻辑梳理、实证方法运用及机制解析等方面的修改意见和建议，使本文获益匪浅。

参考文献

原文顺序 | 文献年度倒序 | 文中引用次数倒序
[1]
段德忠, 谌颖, 杜德斌. 技术转移视角下中国三大城市群区域一体化发展研究. 地理科学, 2019, 39(10): 1581-1591.

DOI

[Duan Dezhong, Chen Ying, Du Debin. Regional integration process of China's three major urban agglomerations from the perspective of technology transfer. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2019, 39(10): 1581-1591.]

DOI

[2]
薛峰, 李苗裔, 党安荣. 中心性与对称性: 多空间尺度下长三角城市群人口流动网络结构特征. 经济地理, 2020, 40(8): 49-58.

DOI

[Xue Feng, Li Miaoyi, Dang Anrong. Centrality and symmetry of people flow network structure of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration at multi-spatial scales. Economic Geography, 2020, 40(8): 49-58.]

DOI

[3]
梅大伟, 修春亮, 冯兴华. 中国城市信息网络结构演变特征及驱动因素分析. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(4): 717-727.

DOI

[Mei Dawei, Xiu Chunliang, Feng Xinghua. Analysis on the evolution characteristics and driving factors of urban information network structure in China. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(4): 717-727.]

DOI

[4]
冯婉怡, 张珊, 舒伯阳, 等. 旅游合作对区域旅游一体化共生的影响: 以长三角城市群为例. 经济地理, 2024, 44(2): 208-218.

DOI

[Feng Wanyi, Zhang Shan, Shu Boyang, et al. Impact of tourism cooperation on the regional tourism integrated symbiosis: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Economic Geography, 2024, 44(2): 208-218.]

DOI

[5]
耿慧, 焦华富, 叶雷. 都市圈一体化共生网络系统的理论框架与研究重点. 地理研究, 2023, 42(2): 475-494.

DOI

[Geng Hui, Jiao Huafu, Ye Lei. Theoretical framework and research emphasis of integrated symbiotic network system in metropolitan area. Geographical Research, 2023, 42(2): 475-494.]

[6]
陈倩, 吴玉韶. 长三角养老服务协同发展的现状、 问题及对策建议. 老龄科学研究, 2023, 11(7): 13-27.

[Chen Qian, Wu Yushao. The current situation, problems, and countermeasures of coordinated development of elderly care services in the Yangtze River Delta. Scientific Research on Aging, 2023, 11(7): 13-27.]

[7]
特木钦. 长三角一体化下养老服务区域融合研究. 宏观经济管理, 2019(8): 51-58.

[Te Muqin. Research on regional integration of old-age services in the context of Yangtze River Delta integration. Macroeconomic Management, 2019(8): 51-58.]

[8]
刘雅菲, 马兴基. 长三角养老服务协同发展研究: 基于共生理论的视角. 老龄科学研究, 2021, 9(5): 45-56.

[Liu Yafei, Ma Xingji. Coordinated development of elderly care services in the Yangtze River Delta: From the perspective of the symbiosis theory. Scientific Research on Aging, 2021, 9(5): 45-56.]

[9]
张卫, 马岚, 后梦婷, 等. 长三角一体化与区域养老融合发展机制研究. 现代经济探讨, 2018(4): 80-87.

[Zhang Wei, Ma Lan, Hou Mengting, et al. Research on the integration of the Yangtze River Delta and the regional elderly care development mechanism. Modern Economic Research, 2018(4): 80-87.]

[10]
周榕. 区域一体化视角下异地养老时空演化及分异机理: 以长三角地区为例. 人文地理, 2023, 38(6): 73-81, 159.

[Zhou Rong. Spatio-temporal evolution and differentiation mechanism of off-site elderly care from the perspective of regional integration: A case of the Yangtze River Delta. Human Geography, 2023, 38(6): 73-81, 159.]

[11]
顾宗倪, 罗小龙. 县域养老设施发展水平的空间不匹配研究: 以江苏省为例. 人文地理, 2024, 39(1): 40-47, 112.

[Gu Zongni, Luo Xiaolong. Examining the spatial mismatch of the elderly care development level: A case study of Jiangsu Province. Human Geography, 2024, 39(1): 40-47, 112.]

[12]
Tran M M, Gannon B. The regional effect of the consumer directed care model for older people in Australia. Social Science & Medicine, 2021, 280: 114017.

[13]
于潇, 孙悦. “互联网+养老”: 新时期养老服务模式创新发展研究. 人口学刊, 2017, 39(1): 58-66.

[Yu Xiao, Sun Yue. The model of “Internet + old-age service”: The innovative development of old-age service in new era. Population Journal, 2017, 39(1): 58-66.]

[14]
李琼, 周宇, 张蓝澜, 等. 中国城镇职工基本养老保险基金区域差异及影响机理. 地理学报, 2018, 73(12): 2409-2422.

DOI

[Li Qiong, Zhou Yu, Zhang Lanlan, et al. Regional disparities and the influence mechanism within China's urban employees' basic endowment insurance funds. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(12): 2409-2422.]

DOI

[15]
王晓东. 从“社会保障对接条例” 到“开放性协调治理”: 欧盟养老保险区域一体化经验及启示. 现代经济探讨, 2013(12): 82-86.

[Wang Xiaodong. From “social security docking regulations” to “open and coordinated governance”: Experience and enlightenment of European Union's regional integration of pension insurance. Modern Economic Research, 2013(12): 82-86.]

[16]
王伟进. 长三角一体化: 公共服务均等化的维度. 中国经济报告, 2020(2): 54-65.

[Wang Weijin. The integration development of Yangtze River Delta: The dimension of public service equalization. China Policy Review, 2020(2): 54-65.]

[17]
彭希哲, 苏忠鑫. 构建高质量发展的养老服务体系战略思考. 人口与发展, 2022, 28(6): 17-24.

[Peng Xizhe, Su Zhongxin. Strategic considerations for building a high-quality elderly care service system. Population and Development, 2022, 28(6): 17-24.]

[18]
贺艳华, 周国华, 唐承丽, 等. 城市群地区城乡一体化空间组织理论初探. 地理研究, 2017, 36(2): 241-252.

DOI

[He Yanhua, Zhou Guohua, Tang Chengli, et al. Theory on the spatial organization of urban-rural integration in urban agglomeration areas. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(2): 241-252.]

[19]
吴康, 龙瀛, 杨宇. 京津冀与长江三角洲的局部收缩: 格局、 类型与影响因素识别. 现代城市研究, 2015, 30(9): 26-35.

[Wu Kang, Long Ying, Yang Yu. Urban shrinkage in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Yangtze River Delta: Pattern, trajectory and factors. Modern Urban Research, 2015, 30(9): 26-35.]

[20]
李雨潼, 曾毅. “候鸟式” 异地养老人口生活现状研究: 以海南省调查为例. 人口学刊, 2018, 40(1): 56-65.

[Li Yutong, Zeng Yi. Study on living situation of “seasonal migratory retirees”: Based on survey in Hainan Province. Population Journal, 2018, 40(1): 56-65.]

[21]
Benson M, O'Reilly K. Migration and the search for a better way of life: A critical exploration of lifestyle migration. The Sociological Review, 2009, 57(4): 608-625.

[22]
穆光宗. 关于“异地养老” 的几点思考. 中共浙江省委党校学报, 2010, 26(2): 19-24.

[Mu Guangzong. Some thoughts on “providing for the aged in different places”. Journal of Zhejiang Provincial Party School, 2010, 26(2): 19-24.]

[23]
Krout J A. Seasonal migration of the elderly. The Gerontologist, 1983, 23(3): 295-299.

[24]
柴效武. 异地集中养老模式可行性探讨. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2004, 34(6): 150-153.

[Chai Xiaowu. Discussion on the feasibility of cross-regional centralized elderly care model. Journal of Zhejiang University (Humanities and Social Sciences), 2004, 34(6): 150-153.]

[25]
郝福庆, 王谈凌, 鲍文涵. 积极应对人口老龄化的战略思考和政策取向. 宏观经济管理, 2019(2): 43-47, 61.

[Hao Fuqing, Wang Tanling, Bao Wenhan. Follow the general trend and take proactive steps to confidently respond to population aging. Macroeconomic Management, 2019(2): 43-47, 61.]

[26]
段圣奎, 张丽, 苏勤. 三亚老年旅居者地方融入过程与类型研究. 旅游学刊, 2022, 37(9): 41-53.

[Duan Shengkui, Zhang Li, Su Qin. Process and types of place integration of elderly sojourners in Sanya. Tourism Tribune, 2022, 37(9): 41-53.]

[27]
方园, 刘声, 祝立雄, 等. 多维生态位视角下的乡村养老特色村研究: 以浙江西北部为例. 经济地理, 2019, 39(8): 160-167.

DOI

[Fang Yuan, Liu Sheng, Zhu Lixiong, et al. Research on the aged care villages from the perspective of multi-dimensional niche: A case study of northwestern Zhejiang. Economic Geography, 2019, 39(8): 160-167.]

DOI

[28]
陈曦, 吴英巨, 朱建华. 候鸟人口的迁移特征、 动因与效应研究进展及人文地理学视角的研究展望. 地理科学, 2024, 44(9): 1565-1576.

DOI

[Chen Xi, Wu Yingju, Zhu Jianhua. Migration characteristics, motivations and effects of the migratory birds and research prospects from the perspective of Human Geography. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2024, 44(9): 1565-1576.]

DOI

[29]
李俏, 赵天予. 乡村振兴背景下农村旅居康养的发展逻辑、 限制与展望. 西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版), 2023, 23(6): 115-125.

[Li Qiao, Zhao Tianyu. Development logic, limitations and prospects of rural sojourn health eldercare in the context of rural revitalization. Journal of Northwest A&F University (Social Science), 2023, 23(6): 115-125.]

[30]
封铁英, 胡毓群. 区域养老服务政策协同测度、 演变及其均等化效应: 以长三角为例. 北京工业大学学报(社会科学版), 2024, 24(1): 46-61.

[Feng Tieying, Hu Yuqun. Measurement, evolution and equalization effect of the coordination of regional elderly service policies: A case study of Yangtze River Delta. Journal of Beijing University of Technology (Social Sciences), 2024, 24(1): 46-61.]

[31]
袁开国, 刘莲, 向云波, 等. 基于GIS的异地互动旅游养老目的地适宜性评价. 经济地理, 2013, 33(11): 163-168.

[Yuan Kaiguo, Liu Lian, Xiang Yunbo, et al. The assessment study of destination suitability for interactive tourism retirement scheme among different places based on GIS. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(11): 163-168.]

[32]
周榕, 石磊, 庄汝龙. 中国旅居养老空间发展模式研究. 地理学报, 2023, 78(6): 1553-1572.

DOI

[Zhou Rong, Shi Lei, Zhuang Rulong. Spatial development model of senior residential tourism based on rural revitalization. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(6): 1553-1572.]

DOI

[33]
谭华云, 周国华. 基于行动者网络理论的乡村绅士化演化过程与机制解析: 以广西巴马盘阳河流域为例. 地理学报, 2022, 77(4): 869-887.

DOI

[Tan Huayun, Zhou Guohua. Evolution process and mechanism of rural gentrification based on actor-network theory: A case study of Panyang River Basin of Bama County, Guangxi. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(4): 869-887.]

[34]
李俏. 城乡互益性养老的理论内涵与实现路径. 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2023(5): 156-166.

[Li Qiao. Theoretical connotation and implementation path of urban-rural reciprocal elderly care. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Sciences), 2023(5): 156-166.]

[35]
陈际华, 于红. 长三角异地机构养老: 生成机理、阻碍因素和区域化发展. 现代经济探讨, 2024(9): 40-50.

[Chen Jihua, Yu Hong. Cross-regional institutional elderly care in the Yangtze River Delta: Formation mechanism, hindering factors and regional development. Modern Economic Research, 2024(9): 40-50.]

[36]
赵梓渝, 王士君, 李卓伟, 等. 中国人口流动网络中的语言纽带效应. 地理学报, 2024, 79(4): 873-889.

DOI

[Zhao Ziyu, Wang Shijun, Li Zhuowei, et al. A study on the effect of language ties in China's population flow network. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2024, 79(4): 873-889.]

DOI

[37]
原新, 于佳豪, 金牛. 经济适老化: 形态变迁、 战略前提与进路建构. 江西社会科学, 2024, 44(7): 158-166.

[Yuan Xin, Yu Jiahao, Jin Niu. Economic aging: Morphological change, strategic premise and approach construction. Jiangxi Social Sciences, 2024, 44(7): 158-166.]

[38]
李山, 王铮, 钟章奇. 旅游空间相互作用的引力模型及其应用. 地理学报, 2012, 67(4): 526-544.

DOI

[Li Shan, Wang Zheng, Zhong Zhangqi. Gravity model for tourism spatial interaction: Basic form, parameter estimation, and applications. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(4): 526-544.]

DOI

[39]
斯蒂芬 L J 史密斯. 旅游决策与分析方法. 南开大学旅游学系译. 北京: 中国旅游出版社, 1991: 130.

[Stephen L J Smith. Tourism Analysis:A Handbook. College of Tourism and Service Management, trans Nankai University trans. Beijing: China Travel & Tourism Press, 1991: 130.]

[40]
高鑫, 修春亮, 魏冶. 城市地理学的“流空间” 视角及其中国化研究. 人文地理, 2012, 27(4): 32-36, 160.

[Gao Xin, Xiu Chunliang, Wei Ye. Study on the sinicization of “space of flows” basing on the visual angle of urban geography. Human Geography, 2012, 27(4): 32-36, 160.]

[41]
刘承良, 管明明. 基于专利转移网络视角的长三角城市群城际技术流动的时空演化. 地理研究, 2018, 37(5): 981-994.

[Liu Chengliang, Guan Mingming. Spatio-temporal evolution of interurban technological flow network in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration: From the perspective of patent transaction network. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(5): 981-994.]

[42]
王坤晓, 吴晋峰, 石晓腾. 基于旅游信息关联分析的旅游目的地成长性研究: 以黄河流域为例. 地理科学进展, 2023, 42(5): 867-883.

DOI

[Wang Kunxiao, Wu Jinfeng, Shi Xiaoteng. Growth of tourism destination based on tourism information correlation: A case study of the Yellow River Basin. Progress in Geography, 2023, 42(5): 867-883.]

DOI

[43]
侯赟慧, 刘志彪, 岳中刚. 长三角区域经济一体化进程的社会网络分析. 中国软科学, 2009(12): 90-101.

[Hou Yunhui, Liu Zhibiao, Yue Zhonggang. Social network analysis over the process of economic integration in the Yangtze River Delta. China Soft Science, 2009(12): 90-101.]

[44]
Leifeld P, Cranmer S J, Desmarais B A. Temporal exponential random graph models with btergm: Estimation and bootstrap confidence intervals. Journal of Statistical Software, 2018, 83(6): 1-36.

[45]
高思齐, 赵媛, 郝丽莎, 等. 基于TERGM的“一带一路” 国家石油资源流动演化机理研究. 地理研究, 2024, 43(5): 1051-1072.

DOI

[Gao Siqi, Zhao Yuan, Hao Lisha, et al. Research on the evolution mechanism of oil resource flow along the Belt and Road based on TERGM. Geographical Research, 2024, 43(5): 1051-1072.]

[46]
Kondo M C, Rivera R, Rullman S. Protecting the idyll but not the environment: Second homes, amenity migration and rural exclusion in Washington State. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2012, 106(2): 174-182.

[47]
Ono M. Commoditization of lifestyle migration: Japanese retirees in Malaysia. Mobilities, 2015, 10(4): 609-627.

[48]
Rodriguez V. Tourism as a recruiting post for retirement migration. Tourism Geographies, 2001, 3(1): 52-63.

[49]
任宣羽. 康养旅游: 内涵解析与发展路径. 旅游学刊, 2016, 31(11): 1-4.

[Ren Xuanyu. Recreational tourism: Connotation analysis and development path. Tourism Tribune, 2016, 31(11): 1-4.]

[50]
王兆峰, 史伟杰, 苏昌贵. 中国康养旅游地空间分布格局及其影响因素. 经济地理, 2020, 40(11): 196-207.

DOI

[Wang Zhaofeng, Shi Weijie, Su Changgui. Spatial pattern of health tourism destination in China and its influence factors. Economic Geography, 2020, 40(11): 196-207.]

DOI

[51]
高晓路. 城市居民对养老机构的偏好特征及社区差异. 中国软科学, 2013(1): 103-114.

[Gao Xiaolu. Preference of the urban elderly for caring facilities: Variation across different communities. China Soft Science, 2013(1): 103-114.]

[52]
武深树. 构建非均衡的农村养老保障制度. 改革, 2003(1): 110-116.

[Wu Shenshu. Building an unbalanced rural elderly care security system. Reform, 2003(1): 110-116.]

[53]
Romsa G, Blenman M. Vacation patterns of the elderly German. Annals of Tourism Research, 1989, 16(2): 178-188.

[54]
Cuba L, Longino C F. Regional retirement migration: The case of Cape Cod. Journal of Gerontology, 1991, 46(1): S33-S42.

[55]
Atchley R C. Retirement and leisure participation: Continuity or crisis? The Gerontologist, 1971, 11(1 Part 1): 13-17.

[56]
O'Reilly K. A new trend in European migration: Contemporary British migration to Fuengirola, Costa del Sol. Geographical Viewpoint, 1995, 23(1): 25-36.

[57]
Nimrod G, Kleiber D A. Reconsidering change and continuity in later life: Toward an innovation theory of successful aging. International Journal of Aging & Human Development, 2007, 65(1): 1-22.

[58]
田明, 徐庆文. 流动人口居留意愿的梯次关系与决定机制. 地理学报, 2023, 78(6): 1376-1391.

DOI

[Tian Ming, Xu Qingwen. Process and determinisms of settlement intention among China's migrant workers. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(6): 1376-1391.]

DOI

Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉