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地理研究 >

2026 , Vol. 45 >Issue 1: 229 - 246

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj020250477

气候变化与植被响应

1961—2020年全球水稻种植格局演化的多尺度时空特征、拐点识别与驱动机制

  • 樊畅 , 1 ,
  • 齐雯丽 1 ,
  • 刘若琪 1 ,
  • 杨彤 1 ,
  • 赵紫章 1 ,
  • 李思祺 1 ,
  • 邢琦 1 ,
  • 许卫芳 2 ,
  • 袁承程 1 ,
  • 张戈丽 , 1
展开
  • 1.中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院， 北京 100093
  • 2.济南市土地储备中心， 济南 250014
张戈丽(1983-)，女，山东淄博人，博士，教授，博士生导师，研究方向为农业与土地资源遥感。E-mail:

樊畅(1999-)，男，山西河曲人，博士生，研究方向为农业土地利用变化及其环境效应研究。E-mail:

收稿日期: 2025-04-25

  录用日期: 2025-12-08

  网络出版日期: 2026-02-04

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42171115)

国家自然科学基金项目(42461144212)

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(15054005)

收起

Spatio-temporal dynamics, turning points and driving mechanisms in global rice cultivation (1961-2020)

  • FAN Chang , 1 ,
  • QI Wenli 1 ,
  • LIU Ruoqi 1 ,
  • YANG Tong 1 ,
  • ZHAO Zizhang 1 ,
  • LI Siqi 1 ,
  • XING Qi 1 ,
  • XU Weifang 2 ,
  • YUAN Chengcheng 1 ,
  • ZHANG Geli , 1
Expand
  • 1. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100093, China
  • 2. Jinan Land Reserve Center, Jinan 250014, China

Received date: 2025-04-25

  Accepted date: 2025-12-08

  Online published: 2026-02-04

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摘要

水稻作为全球50%以上人口的主食来源，贡献了约10%的全球人为甲烷排放量，其种植面积的时空演变对保障全球粮食安全和实现碳中和目标具有重要战略意义。然而，现有研究多局限于短时间序列或局地尺度，缺乏全球范围内长时间序列的水稻时空格局变化及其驱动机制分析。本研究基于联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）1961—2020年的全球水稻种植面积数据，采用趋势分析、突变点检测和驱动力分解等方法，系统揭示了过去60年全球水稻种植格局的时空演变规律、阶段性特征及其关键驱动因素。结果表明：① 在全球格局和区域主导性上，2020年全球水稻种植面积达16,309×104 hm2，亚洲地区占据绝对主导地位（占全球水稻种植面积的85.56%），其次为非洲（9.41%）和美洲（3.64%）。② 长期趋势方面，1961—2020年间全球水稻种植面积呈现波动上升趋势（69×104 hm2/yr），累计增幅达4,773×104 hm2。其中，增长核心区集中于印度与非洲低收入发展中国家。③ 区域转型和拐点差异方面，水稻种植面积的年际突变点呈现显著空间分异，亚洲和非洲国家的拐点集中于2000年前后，而美洲国家则提前至1990年前后。④ 在驱动因素方面，劳动力成本（以农村人口占比表征）和预期收益水平（以人均GDP衡量）对水稻种植面积变化起主导作用。同时，资本性投入（以单位面积化肥施用量反映）的影响力呈现持续增强趋势，而气候风险因素对种植面积的影响相对较弱。本文研究结果为全球气候变化与人口增长双重压力下的粮食安全风险评估、低碳农业优化布局以及可持续土地管理政策制定提供了关键科学依据，对实现联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）提供了科学支撑。

关键词： 全球; 水稻; 种植面积; 时空格局; FAO; 驱动机制

本文引用格式

樊畅 , 齐雯丽 , 刘若琪 , 杨彤 , 赵紫章 , 李思祺 , 邢琦 , 许卫芳 , 袁承程 , 张戈丽 . 1961—2020年全球水稻种植格局演化的多尺度时空特征、拐点识别与驱动机制[J]. 地理研究, 2026 , 45(1) : 229 -246 . DOI: 10.11821/dlyj020250477

Abstract

Rice, as a staple food for more than half of the global population, accounts for approximately 10% of anthropogenic methane emissions. The spatiotemporal pattern of its planting area is crucial for ensuring global food security and achieving carbon neutrality objectives. However, previous studies, limited by the long-term and extensive data, lacked a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics and drivers of rice planting areas worldwide. This study collected the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) global rice planting area dataset from 1961 to 2020 and used trend analysis, turning-points detection, and random forest method to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution patterns, periodic characteristics, and drivers of the global rice planting areas over the past six decades. The results showed that: (1) Globally, the rice cultivation area reached 16,309 × 104 hm2 in 2020, with Asia accounting for the vast majority of this total (85.56%), followed by Africa (9.41%) and Americas (3.64%). (2) Regarding long-term trends, the global rice planting area showed an upward trend (69×104 hm2/yr), with a cumulative increase of 4,773×104 hm2, of which India and low-income developing countries in Africa were the core areas of growth. (3) In terms of regional transformation and differences in turning points, the interannual breakpoints of rice cultivation area varied across regions, with the turning points in Asian and African countries concentrated around the year 2000, while those in American countries occurred earlier, around 1990. (4) In terms of driving factors, labor costs (characterized by the proportion of rural population) and expected return levels (measured by per capita GDP) predominantly influenced changes in rice planting area. Meanwhile, the impact of agricultural input costs (reflected by fertilizer application per unit area) showed a consistent upward trend, whereas the effect of climate risk factors on planting area remained relatively weak. These results provide critical insights for assessing food security risks, optimizing low-carbon agricultural land use, formulating sustainable land management policies under the dual pressures of global climate change and population growth, and the support for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Key words： global scale; rice; planting area; spatio-temporal pattern; FAO; driving mechanism

衷心感谢两位匿名审稿专家与编辑部各位老师在论文审阅中所付出的时间与精力，评审专家对本文的段落结构、背景引入、归因理论框架及图文表达等方面提出了诸多宝贵建议与专业指导，使本研究的逻辑结构更加清晰，研究结果更具说服力与表达力！

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