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地理研究 >

2026 , Vol. 45 >Issue 1: 89 - 107

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj020250705

城乡可持续发展

长三角地区城市热风险时空分异及障碍因素分析

  • 周烁 , 1, 2 ,
  • 刘倩倩 , 1, 2, 3 ,
  • 张文忠 4, 5 ,
  • 卢硕 4, 5
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  • 1.气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室， 南京师范大学， 南京 210023
  • 2.南京师范大学地理科学学院， 南京 210023
  • 3.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心， 南京 210023
  • 4.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所， 北京 100101
  • 5.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院， 北京 100049
刘倩倩（1990-），女，河南开封人，博士，副教授，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为城市地理。E-mail:

周烁（2001-），女，内蒙古呼和浩特人，硕士，主要研究方向为城市热风险。E-mail:

收稿日期: 2025-06-10

  录用日期: 2025-10-21

  网络出版日期: 2026-02-04

基金资助

国家重点研发计划资助项目(2025YFC3811300)

国家自然科学基金项目(42501206)

博士后面上基金资助项目(2024M763226)

收起

Spatio-temporal pattern and obstacle factors of urban heat risk in the Yangtze River Delta region

  • ZHOU Shuo , 1, 2 ,
  • LIU Qianqian , 1, 2, 3 ,
  • ZHANG Wenzhong 4, 5 ,
  • LU Shuo 4, 5
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  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Nanjing Normal University Nanjing 210023, China
  • 2. College of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
  • 3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
  • 4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 5. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2025-06-10

  Accepted date: 2025-10-21

  Online published: 2026-02-04

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摘要

以热浪等为特征的极端天气给世界各地人民的生命安全和社会经济带来严重威胁，分析城市热风险时空分异格局并诊断其障碍因素，对应对热环境灾害及建设气候适应型韧性城市具有重要意义。以长三角地区41个城市为例，本文首先构建了“暴露-危害-敏感-适应”的四维热风险评估框架，然后计算了2000—2020年热风险指数，进而利用Mann-Kendall检验、加权标准差椭圆等时空统计方法分析热风险时空分异过程，最后基于热风险结果诊断其主导障碍因子。结果表明：① 长三角地区城市热风险指数呈现“核心高，外围低”的分布格局，以中风险和较低风险为主，且热风险等级基本按照圈层结构从中心向外围递减。② 95%的城市热风险水平在时间上呈现显著上升的趋势，且各城市热风险在2000—2005年和2010—2015年存在较大波动，热风险空间分布呈现明显的“西北-东南”方向性且具有较显著的空间集聚特征。③ 热敏感和总体人口密度分别为首要障碍度的维度和指标，且热敏感维度与总体人口密度指标对热风险增长的抑制效果均随时间减弱。

关键词： 热风险; 时空分异; 障碍度; 长三角

本文引用格式

周烁 , 刘倩倩 , 张文忠 , 卢硕 . 长三角地区城市热风险时空分异及障碍因素分析[J]. 地理研究, 2026 , 45(1) : 89 -107 . DOI: 10.11821/dlyj020250705

Abstract

Extreme weather characterized by heatwaves poses a serious threat to the safety of people's lives and social economy around the world. Examining the spatio-temporal differentiation pattern of urban heat risk and diagnosing its obstacle factors are of great significance for coping with heat environment disasters and building climate-adaptive resilient cities. Taking the 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region as an example, this paper first constructs a four-dimensional heat risk assessment framework of “exposure-hazard-sensitivity-adaptation”. Then, it calculates the heat risk index from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, spatio-temporal statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall test and the weighted standard deviation ellipse are used to examine the spatio-temporal differentiation process of heat risk. Finally, based on the heat risk assessment results, we diagnose the dominant obstacle factors. The results show that: (1) The urban heat risk index in the study area presents a pattern of “high in the core and low in the periphery”, mainly with medium and relatively low risks, and the heat risk levels generally decrease from the center to the periphery according to the zonal structure. (2) The heat risk levels of 95% of the cities show a significantly rising trend over time. Moreover, the heat risks of various cities experience large fluctuations from 2000 to 2005 and from 2010 to 2015. The spatial distribution of heat risks presents a distinct northwest-southeast direction, with notable agglomeration characteristics. (3) The dimension of thermal sensitivity and the indicator of overall population density present the highest obstacle degrees in their respective categories. Moreover, the inhibitory effect of thermal sensitivity and overall population density on the heat risk growth of weakens over time.

Key words： heat risk; spatio-temporal differentiation; obstacle degree; Yangtze River Delta

真诚感谢匿名评审专家在论文评审中所付出的时间和精力，评审专家在术语规范性、逻辑结构、图表优化及机制深化等方面提出了客观、有建设性的修改意见，使本文获益匪浅。

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